Analysis of epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20250318-00214
- VernacularTitle:2015—2024年山东省百日咳的流行趋势及时空分布特征分析
- Author:
Lei FENG
1
;
Meng XIE
;
Yi LIU
;
Yan ZHANG
;
Xinyu YUAN
;
Aiqiang XU
;
Li ZHANG
;
Hongfu SUN
Author Information
1. 山东省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防管理所 山东省传染病预防控制重点实验室，济南 250014
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pertussis;
Epidemic trend;
Incidence rate;
Spatiotemporal distribution
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2025;59(11):1840-1847
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024.Methods:Data on pertussis cases in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The ArcGIS spatiotemporal method was used to analyze the epidemic trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of pertussis, and determine the hotspots of incidence.Results:From 2015 to 2024, 46 172 cases of pertussis were reported in Shandong Province, with an average annual incidence rate of about 4.60/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed an overall upward trend, and in 2024, the reported incidence rate reached the highest level in history (19.20/100 000) since the implementation of children′s planning immunization. The areas with high incidence rates were mainly located in the central and western regions of Shandong Province, including Jinan city, Liaocheng city, Tai′an city, Zibo city, Binzhou city, Jining city, Dezhou city, Zaozhuang city, and Dongying city. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I index of incidence rate of pertussis in Shandong Province in each year from 2015 to 2024 was >0.00, showing obvious spatial clustering. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the "high high" clustering areas were mainly distributed in some counties (cities, districts) in the central and western regions of Shandong Province, which were hotspots for pertussis incidence in Shandong Province. The spatial trend surface analysis showed that the annual incidence rate of pertussis in each year basically decreased from west to east. In the early stage of the north-south direction, there was a curved trend of low north-south and high in the middle. In the middle and later stages, the northern part was mostly in a higher position, indicating that the central and western regions were the high-risk areas for pertussis in Shandong Province. Conclusions:The pertussis epidemic in Shandong Province from 2015 to 2024 has obvious spatiotemporal clustering, and the central and western regions are the key areas for pertussis prevention and control.
