A prediction model for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients undergoing unsynchronous cardioversion in ICU
10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.09.013
- VernacularTitle:重症监护病房内接受非同步心脏电复律的老年患者的院内死亡预测模型
- Author:
Dan HUANG
1
;
Manli YUAN
;
Xiaowen ZUO
;
Yongjie XU
;
Ye TAO
;
Sheng MA
;
Zhao YIN
Author Information
1. 100120 北京,解放军总医院京中医疗区
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
intensive care unit;
electric countershock;
hospital mortality;
forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Geriatric Heart Brain and Vessel Diseases
2025;27(9):1193-1198
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in the elderly(≥65 years)patients undergoing unsynchronous cardioversion in ICU and to evaluate its effectiveness.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 276 elderly eligible patients in the ICU of the Ninth and the First Medical Centers of Chinese PLA General Hospital between June 2022 and August 2024.According to their clinical outcomes,they were divided into a non-in-hospital dead group(111 cases)and an in-hospital dead group(165 cases).Clinical data were collected,and pre-dictive factors for in-hospital mortality were screened.And then a nomogram prediction model was developed based on the obtained predictive factors,which was evaluated with ROC curve and deci-sion curve analyses.Results When compared to the non-in-hospital dead group,the in-hospital dead group had significantly higher heart rate,ratio of hemodialysis,and levels of alanine amin-otransferase,aspartate aminotransferase,lactate dehydrogenase,alkaline phosphatase,serum cre-atinine,blood glucose,lactate,low base excess,sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)score,model for end-stage liver disease score,and larger proportions of ventricular fibrillation/flutter and structural heart disease induced by pulseless ventricular tachycardia,and had significantly lower Glasgow Coma Scale(GCS)(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified body temperature＞37℃(OR=0.426,95％CI:0.198-0.915,P=0.029),chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(OR=2.333,95％CI:1.217-4.473,P=0.011),GCS score(OR=0.622,95％CI:0.410-0.944,P=0.026),hemoglobin(OR=0.817,95％CI:0.715-0.934,P=0.003),lactate(OR=1.365,95％CI:1.174-1.587,P=0.000),heart rate＞100 bpm(OR=2.757,95％CI:1.397-5.441,P=0.003),and SOFA score(OR=1.112,95％CI:1.032-1.198,P=0.005)as pre-dictors of in-hospital mortality.ROC curve analysis showed an AUC value of above indicators combined together in the prediction was 0.797,with a sensitivity of 76.97％and a specificity of 65.77％.Calibration curve analysis demonstrated good consistency between predicted and observed outcomes.Decision curve analysis indicated favorable clinical utility of the model.Conclusion This study identifies independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality among elderly patients in the ICU who underwent asynchronous cardioversion.Based on these factors,a nomo-gram model is established,demonstrating good discrimination,calibration,and model fit,with high clinical applicability.
