Characteristics and prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease burden attributed to non-optimal temperature in China and globally, 1990—2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn115624-20250804-00655
- VernacularTitle:1990—2021年中国与全球归因于非适宜温度的慢阻肺病负担特征及趋势预测
- Author:
Man XIAO
1
;
Tongzhou GAN
;
Yurong SHI
;
Xingzuo ZHOU
;
Guangqing ZHOU
Author Information
1. 南方医科大学卫生管理学院，广州510515
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pulmonary disease, chronic obstructive;
Temperature;
Disease burden;
Disability-adjusted life years;
Age-standardized mortality rate;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Management
2025;19(11):876-881
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the characteristics and trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) burden attributable to non-optimal temperature in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.Methods:This retrospective cross-sectional study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database to extract indicators including death numbers, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate for COPD due to non-optimal temperature in China and globally. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze temporal trends and identify inflection points. Disease burden distribution characteristics were analyzed by gender and age groups. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2035.Results:Compared with 1990, in 2021 the global ASMR and DALY rate for COPD decreased by 44.59% and 50.02%, respectively, while China saw larger reductions of 69.61% and 72.57%. However, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs increased globally by 31.55% and 12.23%, respectively; in China, the number of deaths remained stable while DALYs decreased by 21.59%. The Joinpoint regression model showed statistically significant differences in trend inflection points between China and the world. The disease burden was higher in males than in females and was significantly higher in people aged≥65 years. The projected burden of COPD mortality and DALYs due to non-optimal temperature is expected to continue rising in both China and the world from 2022 to 2035. By 2035, China′s ASMR and DALY rate are predicted to increase to 21.32/100 000 and 284.68/100 000, respectively, and the global ASMR and DALY rate are predicted to rise to 7.88/100 000 and 122.16/100 000.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature showed a declining trend in both China and globally, but the absolute burden continued to rise, particularly among elderly males and advanced age populations. The burden in both China and globally is projected to continue increasing through 2035, with a higher growth rate in China than globally.
