Trends of Incidence and Mortality of Cancers from 2018 to 2022 in Changsha City,Hunan Province
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.11.A005
- VernacularTitle:2018-2022年湖南省长沙市恶性肿瘤发病与死亡变化趋势分析
- Author:
Yuanxiu HUANG
1
;
Jingsong HU
1
;
Shuang HUANG
1
;
Mansha LI
1
;
Mengyi WU
1
;
Fei LUO
1
Author Information
1. 长沙市疾病预防控制中心,湖南长沙 410004
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
cancer;
incidence;
mortality;
change trend;
contribution rate;
Hunan
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(11):862-869
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the trends of cancer incidence and mortality in Changsha City from 2018 to 2022.[Methods]Based on the annual cancer registry data of Changsha City from 2018 to 2022,SAS 9.2 software was used to calculate the crude incidence/mortality rates and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population(ASIRC/ASMRC).The age-standardized rate was standardized using the population composition of China in 2000.Join-point 4.9.0.0 software was used to fit a Log-linear regression model to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and its 95%confidence interval(CI)for trend analysis.A linear regression model was applied to calculate the contribution rate of each cancer type to the trend change,with a significance level of α=0.05.[Results]From 2018 to 2022,the crude incidence rate of malig-nant tumors in Changsha City was 367.98/105(ASIRC:232.28/105),and the crude mortality rate was 192.36/105(ASMRC:106.11/105).Both incidence and mortality rates were higher in male than those in female.The incidence and mortality rates remained relatively low before age 50 but rose rapidly thereafter:the incidence peaked in the age group of 80~84 years old,while mortality peaked in the age group of 85 years old and above.The top 5 cancers by incidence were lung cancer,female breast cancer,colorectum cancer,cervical cancer,and thyroid cancer;while the top 5 cancers by mortality were lung cancer,colorectum cancer,liver cancer,female breast can-cer,and cervical cancer.The ASIRC increased significantly in the total population(AAPC=4.71%,95%CI:3.20%~6.23%),male(AAPC=2.44%,95%CI:0.35%~4.58%),and female(AAPC=7.17%,95%CI:4.00%~10.43%).The ASMRC increased significantly in the total population(AAPC=2.94%,95%CI:0.73%~5.20%)and male(AAPC=3.37%,95%CI:1.63%~5.15%),but the trend in female was not statistically significant(P>0.05).Contribution rate analysis showed that thyroid cancer(51.25%),female breast cancer(12.18%),lymphoma(6.02%),and oral cavity and pharyngeal can-cer(5.28%)were the main cancer types contributing to the increased ASIRC;lung cancer(26.10%),colorectum cancer(14.89%),oral cavity and pharyngeal cancer(5.73%),lymphoma(5.60%),and thyroid cancer(2.08%)were the main ones contributing to the increased ASMRC;liver cancer(49.82%)and esophageal cancer(19.55%)were the main causes of decreased ASIRC,with their contribution rates to decreased ASMRC reaching 77.69%and 11.16%,respectively.[Conclusion]The disease burden of malignant tumors in Changsha City continued to increase from 2018 to 2022.It is necessary to strengthen prevention and control for cancers with a signifi-cant upward trend(such as thyroid cancer,lung cancer,and colorectum cancer)and high-risk populations(such as male and middle-aged and elderly people),while consolidating the prevention and control effects for liver cancer and esophageal cancer.