Development of a Preoperative Risk Scoring System for Heart Transplantation Based on Characteristics of the Chinese Population
10.3969/j.issn.1000-3614.2025.04.003
- VernacularTitle:基于中国人群特征的心脏移植术前风险评分的建立
- Author:
Shanshan ZHENG
1
;
Zhe ZHENG
;
Jie HUANG
;
Zhongkai LIAO
;
Jianfeng HOU
;
Hanwei TANG
;
Sheng LIU
Author Information
1. 中国医学科学院 北京协和医学院 国家心血管病中心 阜外医院 心外科,北京 100037
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
heart transplantation;
risk prediction model;
graft failure;
survival analysis
- From:
Chinese Circulation Journal
2025;40(4):331-339
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objectives:Using data from the heart transplant patient dataset of our center,we aimed to develop a preoperative risk scoring model specifically suitable for the Chinese population undergoing heart transplantation.This model was established to predict the likelihood of graft failure within the first year post-surgery and classify recipients according to their risk level.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted at a single center on 1 210 consecutive heart transplant recipients between June 2004 and December 2022.Risk factor screening was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.Variable selection was carried out through a stepwise backward procedure based on the Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).The regression coefficients obtained from the final model were employed as weighting factors in the multifactor analysis.The study utilized the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)area under curve(AUC)as a metric to evaluate the performance of the model.Patients were stratified into low,medium,and high-risk groups based on the distribution of the calculated scores.Survival analysis was conducted on the various risk groups using the Kaplan-Meier method,with statistical comparisons performed using the log-rank test.A significance level of P<0.05 was deemed statistically significant.Results:A risk scoring model,denoted as the heart transplant(HTx)score,was developed,comprising 11 variables and yielding a total score of 20.6 points.In comparison to the low-risk group,the OR for 1-year graft failure in the medium-risk group was 2.0(95%CI:1.1-3.6,P=0.02),while the high-risk group had an OR of 9.8(95%CI:5.4-17.7,P<0.01).The risk scoring model exhibited strong discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.712(95%CI:0.646-0.778)and an internally validated bias-corrected AUC of 0.713.The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated that the predictive model demonstrated a strong calibration ability(Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=2.92,P=0.71).Within the cohort,the AUC values for the IMPACT score,UNOS score,RSS score,Mayo score,BO score,and TRS score models were 0.645,0.651,0.632,0.589,0.610,and 0.604,respectively.These findings suggest that the HTx scoring model exhibited superior predictive performance compared to the aforementioned models in forecasting outcomes within our cohort.The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed statistically significant differences in long-term survival rates between the three risk groups,a noticeable decrease in long-term survival rates were observed with increasing levels of HTx risk stratification(P<0.05).Conclusions:Present results indicate a significant association between the developed HTx risk scores and graft failure within the initial year post-surgery,present model effectively categorizes the heart transplant recipients into low,medium,and high-risk groups and is valuable for risk stratification.
