Establishment of a short-term prognosis model for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock induced by fulminant myocarditis treated with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation based on early indicators
10.3969/j.issn.1008-9691.2025.02.010
- VernacularTitle:基于早期指标建立VA-ECMO治疗暴发性心肌炎导致的难治性心源性休克患者短期预后模型
- Author:
Hang DU
1
;
Rui WANG
1
;
Nan WANG
1
;
Mingkai ZHOU
1
;
Gen LI
1
;
Sainan WANG
1
;
Huijie DING
1
;
Shaojie QIN
1
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第二附属医院重症医学科,河南 郑州 450000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Fulminant myocarditis;
Refractory cardiogenic shock;
Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation;
Prognostic model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine in Intensive and Critical Care
2025;32(2):177-183
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the short-term prognosis and risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with fulminant myocarditis induced refractory cardiogenic shock(FM-RCS)receiving veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(VA-ECMO)treatment,and to construct an early prognosis prediction model using relevant indicators.Methods A total of 61 FM-RCS patients treatment by VA-ECMO in the department of intensive care unit of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to February 2024,excluding 15 cases with age less than 18 years and 3 cases with ECMO treatment duration less than 24 hours,a total of 43 patients were finally included.Participants were stratified into survival(n=19)and mortality(n=24)groups according to discharge outcomes.Demographic data,chronic disease history,early laboratory indicators,left ventricular function indicators,and basic reference values of hemodynamics were systematically compared between the two groups.Variable selection was performed using LASSO regression,followed by multivariate COX regression analysis to screen independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in ECMO-treatment FM-RCS patients.A nomogram prediction model was subsequently developed using R software and validated through calibration curves,concordance index(C-index),and receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve)analysis.Results The overall survival rate of the 43 enrolled patients was 44.2%,with 19 cases in the survival group and 24 cases in the mortality group.In early laboratory indicators,the survival group exhibited significantly lower levels of initial lactic acid(Lac),24-hour Lac(Lac 24 h),24-hour MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase(CK-MB 24 h),24-hour cardiac troponin T(cTnT 24 h),24-hour total bilirubin(TBil 24 h),24-hour serum creatinine(SCr 24 h),and lactate albumin ratio(LAR)compared to the mortality group[initial Lac(mmol/L):2.7(1.3,7.6)vs.9.2(5.9,14.0),Lac 24 h(mmol/L):2.4(2.0,3.6)vs.5.4(3.3,9.2),CK-MB 24 h(U/L):58.0(28.0,115.0)vs.167.7(68.5,280.3),cTnT 24 h(μg/L):0.53(0.37,2.41)vs.3.92(3.10,8.86),TBil 24h(μmol/L):18.3(9.9,37.8)vs.40.2(24.6,67.0),SCr 24 h(μmol/L):90.63±42.49 vs.177.76±70.76,LAR:0.09(0.04,0.23)vs.0.31(0.20,0.38),all P<0.05],serum albumin(Alb)levels were significantly higher in the survival group[g/L:36.0(31.9,39.2)vs.31.7(26.4,34.4),P<0.05].The mortality group had a higher incidence of malignant arrhythmias[66.7%(16/24)vs.31.6%(6/19),P<0.05].The LASSO regression model identified four non-zero coefficient variables-Lac 24 h,CK-MB 24 h,cTnT 24 h,and SCr 24 h-which were included in the subsequent multivariate COX regression analysis.The results demonstrated that Lac 24 h[hazard ratio(HR)and 95%confidence interval(95%CI)was 1.186(1.074-1.310),P<0.001]and cTnT 24 h(HR=1.230,95%CIwas 1.078-1.404,P=0.002)were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in VA-ECMO treatment FM-RCS patients.A predictive model constructed using these two indicators showed a C-index of 0.812,area under the curve(AUC)=0.941,with 91.7%sensitivity and 94.7%specificity.Furthermore,compared to the survival group,the mortality group exhibited significantly higher incidences of acute kidney injury[91.7%(22/24)vs.36.8%(7/19)]and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy[62.5%(15/24)vs.10.5%(2/19),both P<0.05].The mortality group also required greater transfusion volumes[mL:3 800(1 420,8 515)vs.1 200(400,3 020),P<0.05],but had shorter total hospitalization durations[days:7(3,13)vs.23(20,44),P<0.05].Conclusion For FM-RCS patients receiving VA-ECMO treatment,Lac 24 h and cTnT 24 h after ECMO initiation are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.Clinicians should be vigilant about poor prognosis in FM-RCS patients with high Lac 24 h hours(>2.5 mmol/L)and cTnT 24 hours(>3.01 μg/L)after ECMO treatment.
