Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction
10.3760/cma.j.cn341190-20240521-00604
- VernacularTitle:带状疱疹并发肾功能不全的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Tian ZHANG
1
;
Zhongjie REN
;
Zhonghan CHEN
;
Ying LI
;
Ke BIAN
Author Information
1. 杭州市第三人民医院肾脏内科，杭州 310009
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Herpes zoster;
Renal insufficiency;
Risk factors;
Forecasting;
Logistic models;
Age factors;
Drug-related side effects and adverse reactions
- From:
Chinese Journal of Primary Medicine and Pharmacy
2025;32(1):100-105
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction and construct a prediction model.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 150 patients with herpes zoster who were admitted to Hangzhou Third People's Hospital from January 2022 to December 2023. The patients were divided into two groups based on the presence of kidney dysfunction: kidney dysfunction group ( n = 30, with kidney dysfunction) and control group ( n = 120, without kidney dysfunction). The risk factors for herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction were analyzed. The logistic prediction model was constructed. The effectiveness of this prediction model in predicting herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results:The differences in gender, body mass index, comorbidities (hypertension and hyperlipidemia), and sites of onset between the two patient groups were not statistically significant (all P > 0.05). The average age of the kidney dysfunction group was (67.74 ± 6.71) years, which was significantly older than that in the control group [(62.32 ± 5.58) years, t = 4.56, P < 0.001]. In the kidney dysfunction group, the proportions of patients with comorbid diabetes, severe pain, large lesion area, high-dose antiviral medication use, and hemoglobin levels < 120 g/L were 46.67% (14/30), 63.33% (19/30), 56.67% (17/30), 46.67% (14/30), and 40.00% (12/30), respectively. These values were all significantly greater than those in the control group [14.17% (17/120), 34.17% (41/120), 31.67% (36/120), 19.17% (23/120), and 10.00% (12/120), χ2 = 15.46, 2.60, 2.10, 9.76, 16.07, P < 0.001, 0.002, 0.035, 0.002, < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that older age ( OR = 3.023), comorbid diabetes ( OR = 4.315), severe pain ( OR = 3.623), large lesion area ( OR = 3.481), high-dose antiviral medication use ( OR = 4.030), and hemoglobin levels < 120 g/L ( OR = 0.151) were all significant risk factors for herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction (all P < 0.05). Based on these risk factors, the following logistic prediction model was developed: Logit( P) = -8.753 + 1.106 × age + 1.462 × diabetes + 1.287 × pain severity + 1.247 × lesion area + 1.394 × high-dose antiviral medication use + (-1.889) × hemoglobin. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that the area under the curve for predicting herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction was 0.904 (95% CI: 0.859-0.937), with a sensitivity of 84.62% and a specificity of 89.04%. Conclusions:The risk factors for herpes zoster complicated by kidney dysfunction include older age, comorbid diabetes, severe pain, large lesion area, high-dose antiviral medication use, and hemoglobin levels < 120 g/L. Based on these factors, the construction of a logistic prediction model can provide a reliable basis for clinical prediction of the occurrence of kidney dysfunction.
