Construction of a risk prediction model for grade 3-4 MBD in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.01.006
- VernacularTitle:初诊多发性骨髓瘤患者发生3～4级MBD的风险预测模型构建
- Author:
Bingrong CHEN
1
;
Wenxiu SHU
1
;
Liufei LUO
1
;
Dian JIN
1
;
Jiaqi TONG
1
;
Jing LE
1
Author Information
1. 宁波市医疗中心李惠利医院血液科,浙江 宁波 315040
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Multiple myeloma;
Multiple myeloma bone disease;
Risk prediction model
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(1):22-25,33
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of grade 3-4 multiple myeloma bone disease(MBD)in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma(NDMM)patients,and establish a risk prediction model based on a nomogram.Methods A total of 261 patients with NDMM who were treated in Ningbo Medical Center Lihuili Hospital from January 2015 to December 2021 were retrospectively selected.The patients were divided into group A(MBD grade 0-2,110 cases)and group B(MBD grade 3-4,151 cases)according to MBD grade at the time of initial diagnosis.Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients,and the risk prediction model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used for comprehensive evaluation.Results Multivariate regression analysis showed that age,serum phosphorus,C-reactive protein(CRP),globulin(GLB)and bone marrow plasma cell percentage(BMPCp)were independent risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients(P<0.05).Based on this,risk prediction model was constructed as follows:logit(P)=-15.092+0.107(age)+1.150(serum phosphorus)+0.057(CRP)+0.040(GLB)+0.212(BMPCp).There was no significant difference between the predicted probability and the actual incidence by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test(P=0.770).The accuracy of the model in predicting grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients was 90.40%,and the area under the curve was 0.957(95%CI:0.932-0.981),indicating a reliable prediction ability.Conclusion Age,serum phosphorus,CRP,GLB and BMPCp were all independent risk factors for grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients,and the constructed risk prediction model has a relatively good predictive effect on the occurrence of grade 3-4 MBD in NDMM patients.
