First Stage Ultrasonic Indicator-Based Nomogram Model for Predicting Vaginal Delivery in Nulliparous Women
10.3969/j.issn.1005-5185.2025.08.013
- VernacularTitle:基于第一产程超声指标列线图模型预测初产妇阴道分娩的价值
- Author:
Sen LIU
1
;
Zhenyu CHEN
;
Wan ZHONG
;
Xiaoming CHEN
;
Bingbing WANG
;
Ting ZHANG
Author Information
1. 锦州医科大学北部战区总医院研究生培养基地,辽宁 锦州 121000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Ultrasonography;
Labor stage,first;
Parturition;
Latent period;
Active period;
Nomograms;
Forecasting
- From:
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging
2025;33(8):872-879
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Purpose To explore factors influencing vaginal delivery during the first stage of labor using intrapartum ultrasound and to construct predictive models for delivery decision-making.Materials and Methods A total of 473 nulliparous women admitted to Heping Hospital,Northern Theater General Hospital from July to December 2021 were prospectively enrolled as the training set.Clinical data on admission and fetal biometric parameters(biparietal diameter,femur length,head circumference and abdominal circumference)measured within one week before delivery were collected.Ultrasound assessments of fetal position,angle of progression(AOP)and head-perineum distance(HPD)were performed during the first stage of labor.The latent phase group(n=255)was subdivided into vaginal delivery group(n=186)and cesarean section group(n=69);the active phase group(n=218)was divided into vaginal delivery group(n=168)and cesarean section group(n=50).The associations between fetal position,AOP,HPD and vaginal delivery were analyzed,and predictive models were constructed for the latent phase(model 1)and active phase(model 2).A validation set of 547 women from January to September 2022 was used to evaluate model performance via area under the curve(AUC),calibration curves and decision curve analysis.Results In the latent phase,multivariate regression identified maternal height(OR=3.970,P=0.002),pre-pregnancy body mass index(OR=0.893,P=0.036),labor onset type(OR=2.415,P=0.045),neonatal birth weight(OR=3.728,P=0.002),AOP(OR=11.649,P<0.001)and HPD(OR=4.240,P=0.004)as significant predictors.The training and validation sets showed AUCs of 0.917 and 0.869,respectively.Goodness-of-fit tests indicated excellent model calibration(χ2=3.437,P=0.904;χ2=10.877,P=0.209).Decision curve analysis demonstrated strong clinical utility.For the active phase,significant predictors included maternal height(OR=6.532,P<0.001),neonatal birth weight(OR=11.890,P<0.001),fetal position(OR=4.600,P=0.003),AOP(OR=7.229,P<0.001)and HPD(OR=4.722,P=0.005).AUCs were 0.943(training)and 0.906(validation),with good calibration(χ2=4.340,P=0.740;χ2=9.836,P=0.277)and clinical applicability.Conclusion First stage ultrasound assessment of fetal position,AOP and HPD correlates with delivery outcomes.The developed nomogram models combining these parameters with clinical factors provide valuable guidance for delivery decision-making.
