Development of a risk prediction score scale for late-onset sepsis in very low birth weight infants
10.3760/cma.j.issn.1673-4912.2025.03.001
- VernacularTitle:极低出生体重儿晚发型败血症风险预测评分表的构建
- Author:
Qianwen XIA
1
;
Dan LI
;
Lili YAO
;
Yi GONG
;
Mengfan QIU
;
Fan WAN
;
Yaoyao DONG
;
Ruolin REN
;
Yalan DOU
;
Lin YUAN
;
Xiaojing HU
Author Information
1. 复旦大学附属儿科医院新生儿科，上海 201102
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Very low birth weight infants;
Late-onset sepsis;
Risk factors;
Prediction model;
Score scale
- From:
Chinese Pediatric Emergency Medicine
2025;32(3):161-169
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the predictive factors associated with late-onset sepsis(LOS) in very low birth weight infants,and to develop a risk prediction score scale applicable to these infants three days postnatal.This will provide valuable insights for early diagnosis and timely intervention.Methods:Very low birth weight infants admitted to the Children's Hospital of Fudan University from January 1,2022,to June 30,2024,were selected as research subjects.These infants were categorized into two groups:the LOS group and the non-LOS group,based on whether they developed LOS.LASSO regression analysis,alongside univariate and multivariate regression analyses,was employed to identify predictive factors for LOS in this population.A Logistic model was constructed using the optimal combination of predictive variables,and a risk assessment scale was subsequently developed.The prediction performance of the model was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results:A total of 444 cases of very low birth weight infants were included,of which 185 had LOS and 259 did not.After screening the variables,seven independent factors were included into the model:birth weight,gestational age,tracheal intubation,abnormal skin color,abdominal distension,elevated C-reactive protein levels,and right hand perfusion index.A predictive scoring scale was developed based on the regression coefficients of each variable,with corresponding risk scores assigned as follows:1,4,3,2,1,1,and 2; a score of ≥3.5 indicated high-risk groups.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results demonstrated that χ2 = 7.602( P = 0.473).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.792 ( P<0.001),with a sensitivity of 73.5% and specificity of 71.0%. Conclusion:The risk score scale developed in this study exhibits significant predictive capability,providing valuable insights for clinical medical personnel to assess the risk of LOS in very low birth weight infants during the early postnatal period.
