Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20240524-00138
- VernacularTitle:黑吉蒙三省区布鲁氏菌病的时空分布特征及影响因素分析
- Author:
Feifei LI
1
;
Hairong LI
;
Linsheng YANG
;
Lijuan GU
;
Li WANG
Author Information
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室，北京 100101
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Brucellosis;
Environmental factors;
Spatial Dubin model;
Spatial and temporal distribution
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(5):359-366
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (hereafter referred to as the Hei-Ji-Meng province and region), and study the influencing factors of brucellosis incidence.Methods:Using a retrospective analysis method, the data of brucellosis incidence in 22 prefecture-level cities in the Hei-Ji-Meng province and region from 2014 to 2018, as well as the data of natural environmental factors (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, vegetation index) and social environmental factors (livestock breeding, livestock and poultry meat production, cultivated land area) were collected and integrated. The spatial autocorrelation model and spatial Dubin model were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution rule of brucellosis and the impact of environmental factors on the incidence of brucellosis in prefecture-level cities.Results:From 2014 to 2018, the incidence of brucellosis in the Hei-Ji-Meng province and region was 18.77/100 000, among which the incidence in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was 33.45/100 000, followed by Heilongjiang Province (13.67/100 000) and Jilin Province (6.57/100 000). Among all prefecture-level cities, the brucellosis incidence was relatively higher in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (69.10/100 000). Except 2016, the brucellosis incidence in other years had a positive spatial correlation (global Moran's I > 0, P < 0.05). The high-high concentration aggregation pattern was mainly concentrated in Ulanqab City, Xilingol League, Chifeng City, Tongliao City, Hinggan League, Hohhot City, and Hulunbuir City of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Among the environmental factors related to brucellosis, cultivated land area and sheep breeding density had a positive effect on brucellosis incidence in the local area, with the effect intensity of 0.39 and 0.32, respectively ( P < 0.001). The average humidity from April to July had a negative effect on the brucellosis incidence in the local area, with the effect intensity of - 0.22 ( P = 0.023). The indirect effect of the number of pigs slaughtered on the brucellosis incidence in adjacent areas was the most significant, and the effect intensity was 2.15 ( P < 0.001). Conclusions:Among the Hei-Ji-Meng province and region, the annual average incidence rate of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is relatively higher, and the high-high concentration areas are mainly concentrated in this region. Among the environmental factors, the cultivated land area, sheep breeding density, the average humidity from April to July and the number of pigs slaughtered have an impact on brucellosis incidence.
