1990-2021 Trend Analysis and Forecast of Disease Burden of Stroke Attributable to High Systolic Blood Pressure in China
10.3870/j.issn.1672-0741.25.01.033
- VernacularTitle:1990～2021年中国归因高收缩压的脑卒中疾病负担趋势及预测
- Author:
Yiyun ZHANG
1
;
Xia WU
;
Yajing LI
Author Information
1. 南华大学公共卫生学院,衡阳 421001
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
high systolic blood pressure;
stroke;
disease burden;
Joinpoint regression model;
Bayesian age-period-cohort model
- From:
Acta Medicinae Universitatis Scientiae et Technologiae Huazhong
2025;54(3):415-422
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To compare and analyze the disease burden of stroke related to high systolic blood pressure(HSBP)in China and globally.Methods Data were collected and organized from the GBD 2021 on the age-specific and sex-specific mortali-ty rates and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates for stroke attributable to HSBP in China and globally from 1990 to 2021.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze trends in the disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP.The Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was applied to predict future disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP in China and globally.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years(ASDR)for stroke attributable to HSBP in China were both higher than the global trends,and the rate of decline was slower than that of the global trend.The decline was slower in males compared to females.By 2021,China's ASMR and ASDR had decreased to 77.73 per 100000(AAPC=-1.31％)and 1484.39 per 100000 person-years(AAPC=-1.34％),respective-ly.The disease burden of stroke attributable to HSBP both in China and globally was primarily concentrated in the elderly popu-lation.In China,except for the 25-34 age group,the mortality rate and DALY rate in all other age groups showed a downward trend.It is projected that,over the next 10 years,both China's and the global ASMR and ASDR for stroke attributable to HSBP will continue to decline,and the decline in China was expected to be greater than the global trend.Conclusion Although the ASMR and ASDR for stroke attributable to HSBP in China show a declining trend,the prevention and treatment situation re-mains challenging.The disease burden is higher among the elderly and males,and the lack of improvement in the disease burden among the 25-34 age group requires attention.In the future,preventive and treatment measures for stroke related to HSBP should be further refined based on existing experience.
