Multi-parameter imaging nomogram model to assess stroke risk in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation
10.3969/j.issn.1002-1671.2025.06.013
- VernacularTitle:多参数影像列线图模型评估持续性房颤患者卒中风险
- Author:
Huaze XI
1
;
Mengyuan JING
1
;
Junlin ZHOU
1
Author Information
1. 兰州大学第二医院放射科,甘肃 兰州 730000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
persistent atrial fibrillation;
ischemic stroke;
nomogram
- From:
Journal of Practical Radiology
2025;41(6):952-957
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To develop a nomogram model based on cardiac computed tomography angiography(CCTA)features to evaluate the risk of stroke in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation(PAF).Methods A total of 387 patients with PAF were retrespectively selected.Among them,127 patients had a history of stroke.After collecting patient data,logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent predictors related to stroke outcome,and a nomogram model was constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze and compare the efficacy of the nomogram model and the conventional score for stroke risk assessment.The concordance index(CI)and decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to evaluate the performance of the model.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age,CHA2DS2-VASc score,smoking history,left atrial appendage(LAA)shape,left atrial volume index(LAVI),LAA fractal dimension(FD)and left atrium(LA)FD were independent predictors of stroke in patients with PAF(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the training set model was 0.886.The AUC of the validation set was 0.763.DCA showed that the nomogram model had better overall net benefits.Conclusion The nomogram model based on CCTA can better evaluate the risk of stroke in patients with PAF,which is helpful for clinicians to make better clinical decisions.
