Establishment and validation of a risk early warning model for recurrent readmission in patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis in the short term
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.03.007
- VernacularTitle:构建高甘油三酯血症性急性胰腺炎患者短期复发再入院预警模型并验证
- Author:
Fen XIE
1
;
Jiao YU
1
;
Sibei SONG
1
;
Lin HUANG
1
Author Information
1. 南昌大学第二附属医院消化科,江西南昌 330006
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hypertriglyceridemia acute pancreatitis;
Recurrence readmission;
Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ;
Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio;
Risk warning model
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(3):27-31
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the related factors of recurrent readmission in patients with hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis(HTG-AP)in the short term,and to construct and verify the risk early warning model.Methods A total of 176 patients with HTG-AP admitted from January to November 2023 were selected as the research objects.According to whether they were readmitted and recurred in the short term,they were divided into recurrent readmission group(n=53)and non-recurrent readmission group(n=123).Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were used to construct the risk prediction model.A total of 53 HTG-AP patients admitted from December 2023 to April 2024 were selected for external validation of the model.Results The probability of recurrence and readmission in 176 patients with HTG-AP in the short term was 30.11％.According to univariate and Logistic multivariate analysis,the results showed acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score ≥ 8 points,Ranson score ≥ 3 points,neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio,serum amylase and lactic dehydrogenase were independent risk factors for recurrence and readmission in HTG-AP patients in the short term,while Ca2+was the protective factor(P＜0.05).According to the H-L goodness of fit test results of 176 patients with HTG-AP,x2=5.212,P=0.735;Area under the curve(AUC)was 0.877(P＜0.001,95％CI:0.824-0.931),the sensitivity was 86.80％,the specificity was 73.20％,and the maximum Youden index was 0.600.According to the H-L goodness of fit test results of 53 patients with HTG-AP,x2=3.391,P=0.907;AUC was 0.881(P＜0.001,95％CI:0.791-0.971),the sensitivity was 78.10％,the specificity was 81.00％,and the maximum Youden index was 0.591.The results showed that the model had good goodness of fit and good predictive efficacy in predicting the short-term recurrence of HTG-AP patients.Conclusion The short-term recurrence and readmission of HTG-AP patients are affected by multiple factors,and the risk prediction model has good consistency and discrimination.
