Infectious Disease Burden and Pharmaceutical Care Optimization:A Three-Decade Cohort Analysis for China's Aging Population(1990-2021)
10.3870/j.issn.1004-0781.2025.12.010
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国老年人传染病疾病负担分析及用药建议
- Author:
Lin YIN
1
;
Shuzhi LIN
1
;
Qian LIU
1
;
Wei LIU
1
;
Xiaoying ZHU
1
;
Zimeng LI
1
;
Yifang SHEN
1
;
Bianling FENG
1
Author Information
1. 西安交通大学药学院药事管理学系,药物安全与监控研究所,西安 710061
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Infectious diseases;
Global burden of disease;
Elderly;
Time trend;
Age-period-cohort analysis;
Prediction
- From:
Herald of Medicine
2025;44(12):1940-1948
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze temporal trends in infectious disease burden among Chinese elderly(≥60 years)using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD 2021),evaluate age-period-cohort effects on disease burden,predict trends through 2045,and propose evidence-based medication management strategies.Methods We conducted a threefold analysis of infectious disease burden from 1990 to 2021 using Joinpoint regression to identify temporal trends,Age-Period-Cohort(APC)modeling to disentangle epidemiological effects,and Nordpred projections for 2045 disease burden estimates.Results Over 32 years,all infectious disease categories except HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections demonstrated significant declines.Enteric infections showed the most rapid reductions in mortality(AAPC=-7.85,P﹤0.001)and disability-adjusted life year rates(DALYR;AAPC=-7.18,P﹤0.001).We also found a significant decrease in the incidence of tropical diseases and malaria(AAPC=-6.77,P﹤0.001).APC analysis found that the age effect was mostly negative in terms of the annual percentage change in mortality and DALYR for each disease,except for HIV/AIDS,with an overall decline in period risk over time,and a generally higher risk of morbidity and mortality for the early birth cohort,and an overall decline in the risk of each disease as the year of birth progressed,but the risk of HIV/AIDS death and DALY period and cohort risks trended upward.While the overall risk for certain diseases was slightly higher in males compared to females,the trends were largely consistent across both sexes.In terms of projections,the absolute prevalence of respiratory infections and tuberculosis in terms of number of cases and age-standardized rates,and the growth of the disease burden of HIV/AIDS were particularly prominent,making them important health challenges for the future.The burden of disease in the elderly often results in issues such as potential polypharmacy,which must be addressed to improve medication management.Conclusions China has achieved remarkable progress in reducing infectious disease burdens among older adults,though HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections present an escalating public health threat.These findings advocate for enhanced surveillance systems,age-specific prevention strategies,and precision medication protocols to optimize therapeutic outcomes in geriatric populations.
