Analysis of independent risk factors for poor prognosis after transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization under endoscopic ultrasound and construction and verification of nomogram
- VernacularTitle:超声内镜下经鼻-肠梗阻导管置管术后预后不良的独立危险因素分析和列线图的构建及验证
- Author:
Chuan WANG
1
;
Haibin SUN
1
;
Junmei LI
1
;
Limin NIE
1
;
Yanwei FANG
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: intestinal obstruction; endoscopic ultrasound transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization; curative effect; nomogram
- From: China Journal of Endoscopy 2025;31(8):8-17
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To explore the independent risk factors influencing the poor prognosis after transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization under endoscopic ultrasound,construct a nomogram for predicting poor postoperative prognosis,and conduct external validation of the nomogram.Methods Clinical data of 451 patients with intestinal obstruction who underwent endoscopic ultrasound transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization from February 2019 to February 2022 were collected to establish a nomogram.Then,194 sets of data with the same conditions from February 2022 to February 2024 were collected as the external validation group to validate the model externally.The recovery at 30 d after operation was observed and divided into good prognosis group and poor prognosis group.Multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the independent risk factors influencing the poor prognosis after transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization under endoscopic ultrasound.Using R 3.6.3 software and the RMS package,a nomogram model for predicting the risk of poor prognosis after intestinal obstruction catheterization under endoscopic ultrasound was constructed..The discrimination and consistency of the model were evaluated using receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve)and calibration curve.Results The patients in the poor prognosis group were older than those in the good prognosis group,the levels of C-reactive protein(CRP),procalcitonin(PCT)and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR)were higher than those in the good prognosis group,the length of hospital stay was longer than that in the good prognosis group,and the proportion of diabetes,abdominal pain and hormone using were higher than those in the good prognosis group,body mass index(BMI),preoperative albumin level and preoperative nutritional support ratio were lower than those of the good prognosis group,with statistical significance(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis(introduction level was 0.05,exclusion level was 0.107)showed that:age≥68 years(OR＾=2.631,95%CI:1.927～3.593),BMI<22.31 kg/m2(OR＾=2.142,95%CI:1.436～3.195),preoperative albumin<32.47g/L(OR＾=1.962,95%CI:1.506～2.556)and preoperative nutritional non-support(OR＾=2.814,95%CI:1.401～5.654)were independent risk factors affecting the poor prognosis after endoscopic transnasal-intestinal obstruction catheterization(P<0.05).The column nomogram showed that old age,low BMI,low preoperative albumin,and no preoperative nutritional support all increased their corresponding weights.Internal and external validation results indicated good consistency and discrimination of the model.Conclusion age≥68 years,BMI<22.31 kg/m2,preoperative albumin<32.47 g/L,and no preoperative nutritional support are all independent risk factors affecting the ineffective of intestinal obstruction catheterization under endoscopic ultrasound.The nomogram model established in this study based on these four factors has high reliability and practicality.
