Analysis of prognostic factors of swallowing function for stroke patients with pseudobulbar palsy dysphagia and construction of prediction model
10.3760/cma.j.cn421666-20240406-00230
- VernacularTitle:脑卒中后假性球麻痹吞咽障碍患者吞咽预后的影响因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Xiu LUO
1
;
Yi LI
;
Hongji ZENG
;
Litao WANG
;
Liugen WANG
;
Heping LI
;
Shujun DAI
;
Xi ZENG
Author Information
1. 郑州大学第一附属医院康复医学科，郑州 450000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pseudobulbar paralysis;
Dysphagia;
Risk factors;
Prediction models;
Prognosis;
Stroke
- From:
Chinese Journal of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
2025;47(4):289-294
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the factors influencing the prognoses of stroke survivors with pseudobulbar palsy (PBP) dysphagia and construct a prediction model.Methods:Data on two hundred and fifty-one stroke survivors with PBP dysphagia were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The subjects were divided into a good prognosis group ( n=164) and a poor prognosis group ( n=87) according to the results of Kubota water swallowing tests administered at discharge. Their clinical data were analyzed using univariate correlation analysis, and the statistically significant independent variables found were further analyzed using multivariate logistic regression to obtain the important predictors of prognosis. R software was then used to assemble the useful factors into a nomogram prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was employed to verify the model′s predictive power. Results:According to the univariate correlation analysis, significant differences were found between the two groups′ average National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores, mouth opening grades and ages. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NIHSS score, mouth opening grade and age could be useful and independent predictors of poor prognosis. The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for the nomogram model was 0.727, with a sensitivity of 59.8% and a specificity of 81.6%, suggesting that the model had good predictive power and was properly calibrated.Conclusions:NIHSS score, mouth opening grade and age are independent predictors of prognosis for stroke patients with PBP dysphagia. The nomogram model constructed in this study is of great value in developing a prognosis for such patients, which is helpful in the prevention and treatment of post-stroke dysphagia.
