Analysis of influencing factors and construction of a predictive model for muscle cramps in maintenance hemodialysis patients
10.3760/cma.j.cn441217-20240923-00944
- VernacularTitle:维持性血液透析患者肌肉痉挛的影响因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Yuetong QIAN
1
;
Jingjing JIN
1
;
Rongfang ZHU
1
;
Xuming SU
1
;
Yaling BAI
1
;
Shenglei ZHANG
1
;
Zhezhe NIU
1
;
Jinsheng XU
1
Author Information
1. 河北医科大学第四医院肾内科，石家庄 050011
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Renal dialysis;
Spasm;
Nomogram;
Risk factors;
Muscle cramps
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nephrology
2025;41(3):189-196
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for muscle cramps in maintenance hemodialysis patients and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:It was a retrospective cohort study. Patients undergoing regular hemodialysis at the Blood Purification Center of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University (West and East Campuses) from June 2023 to December 2023 were enrolled in this study. Patients were divided into a muscle cramps group and a non-muscle cramps group based on whether cramps occurred during or after dialysis. Patients from the West Campus were allocated to the training set, while those from the East Campus were assigned to the validation set, with an approximately 5∶1 ratio. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for muscle cramps in the training set. A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software. Model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis in both the training and validation sets.Results:A total of 498 maintenance hemodialysis patients were enrolled, including 409 in the training set (22.98% incidence of muscle cramps) and 89 in the validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that heart failure history ( OR=8.566, 95% CI 2.448-29.979, P=0.001), pre-dialysis corrected narrowed inferior vena cava width ( OR=0.531, 95% CI 0.433-0.650, P<0.001), increased ultrafiltration rate ( OR=1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.003, P=0.002), decreased hemoglobin level ( OR=0.971, 95% CI 0.948-0.994, P=0.014), and decreased serum albumin ( OR=0.886, 95% CI 0.799-0.982, P=0.021) were independent associated factors for muscle cramps in the training set. The nomogram model based on these factors demonstrated an area under the ROC curve ( AUC) of 0.813 (95% CI 0.760-0.866, P<0.001) in the training set, with a Brier score of 0.129, indicating stable predictive performance. In the validation set, the area under of the ROC curve was 0.821 (95% CI 0.731-0.911, P<0.001) with a Brier score of 0.142. The decision curve showed that the model provided high clinical net benefit when the risk threshold probability for muscle cramps ranged from 0.22 to 0.77. Conclusion:Combined heart failure, narrowed inferior vena cava width, increased ultrafiltration rate, and decreased hemoglobin and serum albumin levels were the independent correlated factors for muscle spasm in maintenance hemodialysis patients. The nomogram model constructed based on these risk factors holds significant clinical value for predicting muscle cramps in maintenance hemodialysis patients.
