Global Burden of Liver Cirrhosis and the Attributable Risk Factors:An Analysis and Forecast Based on GBD 2021
10.3969/j.issn.1008-7125.2025.03.001
- VernacularTitle:基于GBD 2021的全球肝硬化疾病负担及其可归因危险因素分析和预测
- Author:
Yuyang LIU
1
;
Chengcen GUO
;
Ruqi TANG
;
Xiong MA
;
Weilin HOU
;
Qixia WANG
Author Information
1. 上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院消化内科 上海市消化疾病研究所(200001)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Liver Cirrhosis;
Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease;
Hepatitis B,Chronic;
Global Burden of Disease
- From:
Chinese Journal of Gastroenterology
2025;30(3):129-138
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Background:Liver cirrhosis is characterized by chronic inflammation,progressive fibrosis,and eventual liver dysfunction,and poses a major global health challenge.Aims:To assess the global burden of liver cirrhosis and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021.Methods:Using data extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases,Injuries,and Risk Factors Study(GBD)2021,the incidence,mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and their age-standardized rates of liver cirrhosis were analyzed.Furthermore,a stratified analysis was conducted by sex,age,region,and etiology,with projections of the trends in the next 15 years.Results:Compared to 1990,the global incidence number of liver cirrhosis in 2021 was increased by 58.2%,the death number and DALYs rose by 39.5%and 27.9%,respectively.While the global age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)showed a slight increase,the age-standardized death rate(ASDR)and DALY rate continued to decline.Both ASIR and ASDR exhibited negative correlations with the sociodemographic index(SDI).All age-standardized rates were higher in males than in females.Since 1990,the incidence rate increased in younger populations,while the mortality and DALY rates declined in most age groups.Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)emerged as the leading cause of incidence,whereas chronic hepatitis B and C remained the primary contributors to deaths and DALYs.The incidence of NAFLD was prominent in high and high-middle SDI regions,while chronic hepatitis B was concentrated in low SDI regions.Projections to 2036 indicated a continuing rise in ASIR,and declines in ASDR and DALY rate.The incidence of chronic hepatitis B was projected to decrease markedly,whereas that of NAFLD was expected to continue increasing.Conclusions:Between 1990 and 2021,the global incidence of liver cirrhosis showed a modest increase;in contrast,both mortality and DALY rates demonstrated a steady decline.Burden of liver cirrhosis poses notable regional disparities.NAFLD dominates incidence in high-income regions,while viral hepatitis remains predominant in low-income areas,highlighting the need for region-specific prevention strategies.
