Levels of peripheral blood inflammatory factors in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia and construction and evaluation of a prognostic prediction model
10.11816/cn.ni.2025-241068
- VernacularTitle:肺炎支原体肺炎患儿外周血炎症因子水平及其预后预测模型构建与评价
- Author:
Na PENG
1
;
Hongmei MA
;
Chunhui DENG
;
Jing TAN
;
Hong ZOU
Author Information
1. 四川省达州市中心医院儿科,四川达州 635000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia;
Children;
Risk factor;
Disease condition;
Prognosis;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology
2025;35(11):1674-1678
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To explore the relationship between levels of peripheral blood interleukin(IL)-6,IL-18,IL-1β,tumor necrosis factor(TNF-α),procalcitonin(PCT),C-reactive protein(CRP)and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1(VCAM-1)and disease condition and prognosis in children with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia(MPP),and to construct a prediction model.METHODS A total of 196 children with MPP admitted to Dazhou Central Hospital in Sichuan Province from Jan.2022 to Jan.2024 were selected as the MPP group and were divided into the mild group(n=124)and the severe group(n=72)according to the clinical pulmonary infection score(CPIS),and 200 healthy children who participated in physical examination in the hospital during the same period were selected as the healthy group.All 196 children with MPP received relevant treatments and were divided into a poor prognosis group(n=40)and a good prognosis group(n=156)according to their prognosis.The levels of peripheral blood IL-6,IL-18,IL-1β,TNF-α,PCT,CRP and VCAM-1 were measured in all the subjects,the risk factors affecting the disease condition and prognosis of children with MPP were analyzed,the prediction model was constructed,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was drawn and the area under the curve(AUC)was calculated to evaluate the predictive effect of the constructed prediction model.RESULTS Peripheral blood IL-6,IL-18,IL-1β,TNF-α,PCT,CRP and VCAM-1 levels in the MPP group were higher than those in the healthy group(P＜0.05).The levels of IL-6,IL-18,IL-1β,TNF-α,PCT,CRP and VCAM-1 in peripheral blood were significantly higher in the severe group than those in the mild group(P＜0.05).IL-6(OR=1.203),IL-18(OR=1.072),IL-1β(OR=4.060),TNF-α(OR=1.264),PCT(OR=3.132),CRP(OR=1.546)and VCAM-1(OR=1.009)were risk factors for severe condition in MPP children(P＜0.05).The prediction model constructed for the devel-opment of severe illness in MPP children was as follows:Logit(P)=-67.522+0.185×IL-6+0.069×IL-18+1.401×IL-1β+0.234×TNF-α+1.142×PCT+0.436×CRP+0.009 ×VCAM-1.The AUC of the prediction model for predicting severe conditions in MPP children was 0.985.The levels of IL-6,IL-18,IL-1β,TNF-α,PCT,CRP and VCAM-1 in peripheral blood in the poor prognosis group were higher than those in the good prognosis group(P＜0.05).IL-6(OR=1.083,95％CI:1.024-1.145,P=0.005),TNF-α(OR=1.083,95％CI:1.002-1.172,P=0.046)and VCAM-1(OR=1.029,95％CI:1.015-1.044,P＜0.001)were risk factors for poor prognosis in MPP children.The prediction model established for poor prognosis in children with MPP was as follows:logit(P)=-31.557+0.080×IL-6+0.080×TNF-α+0.029×VCAM-1.The AUC of the prediction model for predicting poor prognosis in MPP children was 0.979.CONCLUSIONS The levels of IL-6,IL-18,IL-1β,TNF-α,PCT,CRP and VCAM-1 in pe-ripheral blood are closely related to the severity of illness in children with MPP.The prediction model constructed on the basis of the above indicators predicts the risk of severe disease in children with MPP,and the prediction model constructed on the basis of IL-6,TNF-α and VCAM-1 predicts the risk of poor prognosis in children with MPP.
