Construction of risk nomogram of distant metastasis in gallbladder cancer based on the SEER database
10.3969/j.issn.1673-9701.2025.09.004
- VernacularTitle:基于SEER数据库胆囊癌远处转移风险列线图的构建
- Author:
Yingfei WEI
1
;
Mengcheng WANG
1
;
Tao MENG
1
;
Zhong TONG
1
Author Information
1. 合肥市第一人民医院肝胆胰外科,安徽 合肥 230001
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Gallbladder carcinoma;
Distant metastasis;
Influencing factors;
Predictive model
- From:
China Modern Doctor
2025;63(9):15-19,28
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To investigate the clinical factors affecting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)and to construct a predictive model for metastasis risk.Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on 4979 GBC patients from the surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)database from January 2000 to December 2021,which were divided into a training set(n=3485)and an internal validation set(n=1494)in a 7∶3 ratio.Additionally,47 GBC patients from Hefei First People's Hospital from January 2009 to December 2024 were collected as an external validation set.In the training set,univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of distant metastasis in GBC and to construct a predictive model.The predictive ability of the model was assessed by using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.The model's calibration and clinical utility were evaluated through calibration curves and decision curve analysis.Results The results of univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that Caucasian,tumor size,T stage,and N stage were independent risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with GBC(P＜0.05).The predictive model constructed based on these factors had an AUC of 0.727,indicating good predictive performance.In the training set,internal validation set,and external validation set,the predictive results of this model showed good consistency with the actual situation.Conclusion The nomogram established by using SEER database can accurately predict the distant metastasis status in patients with GBC and demonstrates good clinical applicability.It assists clinicians in intuitively assessing the distant metastasis rate in GBC patients,thereby facilitating the formulation of personalized treatment plans.
