Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for oral frailty in the elderly community population
10.3761/j.issn.0254-1769.2025.03.003
- VernacularTitle:社区老年人口腔衰弱风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Min WANG
1
;
Wenjuan YANG
;
Ting LIAO
;
Jinmei ZOU
;
Dongxia LIAO
;
Cuicui ZHANG
;
Yingyi DENG
;
Xiyan GONG
;
Changju LIAO
Author Information
1. 643000 四川省自贡市四川卫生康复职业学院护理学院
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Oral frailty;
Aged;
Prediction Model;
Nomograms;
Community Nursing
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nursing
2025;60(3):274-280
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective This study examines the factors influencing oral frailty in the elderly community,develops a risk prediction model,and validates its efficacy,so as to provide references for identifying and preventing oral weakness in the elderly.Methods 556 elderly individuals from 4 communities were selected by convenience sampling from June to August 2024 in Zigong City Sichuan Province.They were randomly divided into a training group(383 cases)and a validation group(165 cases).Data were collected by a general information questionnaire,Social Frailty Scale,Geriatric Depression Scale,and the Oral Frailty Index-8 screening tool.Logistic regression was used to determine the influencing factors,and R software was used to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of oral frailty.Bootstrap method and the validation group were used for internally validation of the model.Calibration curve was used to evaluate the prediction performance of the model.Results 548 valid questionnaires were collected.The final model variables included whether the age ≥80 years,wearing removable dentures,reduced frequency of going out,brushing teeth less than twice a day,frequent dry mouth,increased difficulty in eating hard foods,and choking.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the training group was 0.95(95％CI:0.93～0.97),and the best cutoff value was 0.687.The model achieved an accuracy of 87％,sensitivity of 91％,specificity of 85％,positive predictive value of 0.75,and negative predictive value of 0.95.The Hosmer-Lemeshow fitting test show that x2=3.036,P=0.932,indicating a good model fit.Conclusion The oral frailty prediction model demonstrated a good discrimination,calibration,and clinical utility,which can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and early screening of oral frailty in the elderly.
