Trend of Prostate Cancer Mortality in China from 2011 to 2020 and Prediction from 2021 to 2030
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.03.A002
- VernacularTitle:2011-2020年中国前列腺癌死亡趋势分析及2021-2030年变化趋势预测
- Author:
Zhe LIU
1
;
Lin YANG
1
;
Xuehua HU
1
;
Jinlei QI
1
;
Jiangmei LIU
1
;
Lijun WANG
1
;
Maigeng ZHOU
1
;
Peng YIN
1
Author Information
1. 中国疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制中心,北京 100050
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
prostate cancer;
mortality;
prediction;
Bayesian age-period-cohort;
China
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(3):171-177
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the trend of prostate cancer mortality in China from 2011 to 2020,and to predict the prostate cancer mortality trend from 2021 to 2030.[Methods]The data were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System(NMSS)from 2011 to 2020,the burden of prostate cancer in China from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by the number of deaths,age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),years of life lost(YLL)and age-standardized YLL rate.Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC)to describe the trend of change.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the mor-tality rate of prostate cancer from 2021 to 2030 and estimate the number of deaths of prostate can-cer in the future.Decomposition analysis was carried out to explore the potential drivers of changes of mortality.[Results]The number of prostate cancer deaths in China in 2020 was 30 805 with an ASMR of 5.56/105.The ASMR for prostate cancer in urban and rural areas was 6.56/105 and 4.84/105,respectively.From 2011 to 2020,the number of prostate cancer deaths,ASMR and age-standardized YLL rate of prostate cancer in China showed an upward trend,AAPC was 5.4％(95％CI:4.7％～6.1％),1.5％(95％CI:1.4％～1.6％)and 1.1％(95％CI:1.1％～1.2％),respective-ly.The ASMR of prostate cancer was higher in the eastern region than those in the central and western regions.Prostate cancer deaths increased in both urban and rural areas among people aged 60 years old and above.In 2030,it is predicted the ASMR of prostate cancer would increase to 5.74/105.Population aging,changes in age-specific mortality rates,and natural population growth accounted for 24.75％,2.77％,and 7.45％of the changes in total deaths of prostate can-cer,respectively.[Conclusion]The burden of prostate cancer is increasing in China.Targeted measures should be implemented in high-risk areas and high-risk groups to effectively reduce the disease burden caused by prostate cancer.
