Construction and verification of an early prediction model for visual benefit of diabetic macular edema after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treat-ment
10.13389/j.cnki.rao.2025.0053
- VernacularTitle:糖尿病黄斑水肿抗VEGF治疗后视力获益早期预测模型构建与验证
- Author:
Yu YAN
1
;
Qin ZHONG
;
Yanpeng CHEN
;
Lei YANG
;
Gangyi LI
;
Shuangle LI
Author Information
1. 643000 四川省自贡市,自贡市第一人民医院眼科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
diabetes mellitus;
macular edema;
LASSO-Logistic regression model;
nomogram model;
risk factor;
in-fluencing factor
- From:
Recent Advances in Ophthalmology
2025;45(4):298-304
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct and verify an early prediction model for visual benefit of diabetic macular edema(DME)after anti-vascular endothelial growth factor(VEGF)treatment based on clinical data,optical coherence tomo-graphy angiography(OCTA),serum brain tissue aquaporin-4(AQP4)mRNA and total bilirubin(TBIL)levels.Methods A total of 480 patients(480 eyes)with DME treated in the First People's Hospital of Zigong City from October 2021 to March 2024 were selected and divided into a modeling set(320 cases)and a validation set(160 cases)at a ratio of 2∶1.According to the visual benefit after anti-VEGF treatment,patients in the modeling set were further divided into a benefit group(80 cases)and a non-benefit group(240 cases).The baseline data of the two groups of patients were collected,and the factors influencing visual benefits in DME patients after anti-VEGF treatment were analyzed.An early prediction model was constructed and validated both internally and externally.Results The inter-group comparison results showed that the diabetes duration in the non-benefit group was longer than that in the benefit group(P＜0.05).The proportion of smokers,the best corrected visual acuity(BCVA),the minimum resolution angle(logMAR)vision,hemoglobin A1c(HbAlc)and AQP4 mRNA levels were higher in the non-benefit group than those in the benefit group(all P＜0.05).The foveal retinal deep capillary plexus blood flow density(DCP-VD),central macular thickness(CMT),and TBIL levels were lower in the non-benefit group than those in the benefit group(all P＜0.05).The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LAS-SO)-Logistic regression analysis showed that the factors influencing visual benefit in DME patients after anti-VEGF treat-ment were CMT,BCVA(logMAR),HbAlc,AQP4 mRNA levels,foveal DCP-VD,and TBIL levels.The predictive risk con-sistency index of the nomogram model constructed based on the above-mentioned influencing factors for visual benefit pre-diction after anti-VEGF treatment was 0.844.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve showed that the area un-der the ROC curve(AUC)of the model was 0.844(95％ CI:0.797-0.891)in the modeling set and 0.898(95％ CI:0.847-0.949)in the validation set.The decision analysis curve showed that when the high-risk threshold of the modeling set ranged between 0 and 82％ and that of the validation set ranged between 0 and 100％,the model could bring net clinical benefits.Conclusion CMT,BCVA(logMAR),HbAlc,AQP4 mRNA levels,foveal DCP-VD,and TBIL levels are the fac-tors influencing visual benefit in DME patients after anti-VEGF treatment.The visual benefit prediction model constructed based on these factors has high accuracy and stability,and can be used as an effective tool for clinical prediction of visual benefit after treatment.
