Analysis of risk factors for adverse events in painless gastroenteroscopy and construction of a nomogram model
- VernacularTitle:老年患者行无痛胃肠镜检查时发生不良事件的风险因素分析及列线图模型的构建
- Author:
Jie LI
1
;
Jun HU
1
;
Tingting CHEN
1
;
Junwu LIU
1
;
Hongping HE
1
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: elderly; painless gastroenteroscopy; adverse events; risk factors; predictive models
- From: China Journal of Endoscopy 2025;31(3):37-45
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To investigate the risk factors of adverse events in elderly patients with painless gastroenteroscopy,and construct a nomogram model for predicting the risk of adverse events.Methods 302 patients who underwent painless gastroenteroscopy from September 2023 to March 2024 were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into training set(211 cases)and validation set(91 cases)according to the 7∶3 ratio.The training set was divided into adverse event group(64 cases)and non-adverse event group(147 cases)according to whether adverse events occurred.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for adverse events in elderly painless gastroenteroscopy patients,R 3.4.3 software was used to construct a nomogram model,and the validation set was used for external verification.The nomogram model discrimination was evaluated by drawing the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve),and the calibration curve was drawn to evaluate the calibration degree of the nomogram model.Results Univariate analysis showed that,the comparison of overweight or obesity,smoking,hypertension,coronary heart disease,education level,pre examination sleep time,and exercise habits between the adverse event group and the non-adverse event group were statistically significant(P＜0.05);Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that overweight or obesity(OR=4.821,95％CI:1.052～11.651),smoking(OR=1.056,95％CI:1.313～3.109),hypertension(OR=1.356,95％CI:1.175～2.677),and coronary heart disease(OR=1.385,95％CI:1.168～2.765)were risk factors for adverse events during painless gastroenteroscopy in elderly patients(P＜0.05);The areas under the ROC curves for the training and validation sets were 0.921 and 0.795,respectively.The sensitivity was 90.62％(95％CI:0.846～0.965)and 82.14％(95％CI:0.689～0.856),and the specificity was 74.83％(95％CI:1.056～2.939)and 76.19％(95％CI:1.245～4.161),indicating that the nomogram model had good discriminability;The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test results showed that the nomogram model had a good fit(P＞0.05),and the calibration curves of the training and validation sets both showed that the nomogram model had a good consistency between the actual and predicting incidence of adverse events(P＞0.05).Conclusion Overweight or obesity,hypertension,cornary heart disease and smoking are independently correlated with adverse events in painless gastroenteroscopy,and the nomogram model constructed based on the above factors to predict the risk of adverse events in painless gastroenteroscopy has good predictive efficacy.
