Risk factors for severe adenovirus pneumonia in children and construction of its predictive model
10.11816/cn.ni.2025-250445
- VernacularTitle:儿童腺病毒肺炎重症的危险因素及其预测模型构建
- Author:
Meitong JIANG
1
;
Hui MENG
1
;
Mingfeng SHAN
1
Author Information
1. 南京医科大学附属儿童医院感染科,江苏南京 210008
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Child;
Adenovirus;
Pneumonia;
Severe;
Risk factor;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology
2025;35(20):3128-3131
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
OBJECTIVE To analyze the risk factors for severe adenovirus pneumonia(AP)in children and construct a nomogram.METHODS A total of 108 children with AP admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases at Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from Nov.2023 to Apr.2024 were selected and divided into a severe group(n=38)and a non-severe group(n=70)based on disease severity.Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for severe AP in children.A nomogram was developed by R software,and its per-formance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.RESULTS Anemia(OR=4.370,95％CI:1.370-13.941,P=0.013),congenital heart disease(OR=4.036,95％CI:1.277-12.754,P=0.017),multiple infection(OR=4.984,95％CI:1.546-16.069,P=0.007)and pulmonary consolidation(OR=17.492,95％CI:5.288-57.864,P＜0.001)were identified as risk factors for severe AP in children.The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram for pre-dicting severe AP in children was 0.896(95％CI:0.838-0.954).The slope of calibration curve was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded x2=7.754,P=0.355.CONCLUSIONS Anemia,congenital heart dis-ease,multiple infection and pulmonary consolidation are risk factors for severe AP in children.The constructed nomogram enables individualized prediction of severe AP risk in children,thereby guiding personalized interventions.
