Trend Analysis and Future Forecast of Thyroid Cancer Incidence by Sex in China from 1990 to 2021
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.10.A007
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国不同性别甲状腺癌发病趋势分析及预测
- Author:
Xiangrui FU
1
;
Wen LI
;
Yurong LIU
;
Xuan ZHANG
;
Wenli LU
;
Yuan WANG
Author Information
1. 天津医科大学公共卫生学院,天津 300070
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
thyroid cancer;
incidence;
gender difference;
trend analysis;
forecasting;
China
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(10):804-812
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the changes in the incidence trend of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the future incidence from 2022 to 2030.[Methods]We collected data related to the incidence of thyroid cancer among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 in the Global Bur-den of Disease 2021(GBD 2021)study,analyzed the trend of thyroid cancer incidence using the Joinpoint regression model,and constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model to pre-dict the future incidence of thyroid cancer during the years of 2022-2030,based on the inci-dence data during the years of 1990-2021.[Results]From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of thyroid cancer in China showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the ASIR of thyroid cancer in China in 2021 was 2.47/105,slightly lower than the global average(2.91/105)in the same year.In 2021,there were significant differences in new cases and incidence rate of thyroid cancer between men and women,with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men.Among them,the number of new cases in women was 27 915,the crude incidence rate was 4.02/105,and the ASIR was 2.87/105;in men,the number of new cases was 20 189,the crude incidence rate was 2.77/105,and the ASIR was 2.11/105.Between 1990 and 2021,the increase in the number of new cases,the crude incidence rate,and the ASIR of men in China was much larger than that of women.The ASIR of thyroid cancer in both male and female showed an in-creasing trend,while the average annual percentage change(AAPC)in female was lower than that in male.There were significant gender differences in the age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer.In 2021,the incidence rate of women was higher than that of men in the Chinese population＜75 years old,whereas the incidence rate of men was higher than that of women in the population≥75 years old.From 1990 to 2021,the incidence rates of the Chinese male population aged 45～59 years old and ≥75 years old increased significantly;and the incidence rate of the Chinese fe-male popu-lation aged 50～74 years old increased significantly.Projections showed that the ASIR of overall,male and female standardized incidence rates in 2030 increased to 2.90/105,2.44/105 and 3.26/105 respectively.[Conclusion]The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in China is on the rise,with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men,but the incidence rate of men has increased more than that of women,and the gap between the incidence rates is narrow-ing,and the peak age of incidence of men is mostly in the senior age group.
