Incidence Trends of Elderly Breast Cancer in China and Globally from 1990 to 2021 and Prediction of Future Trends from 2022 to 2035
10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.10.A008
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年全球及中国老年乳腺癌发病趋势分析及2022-2035年变化趋势预测
- Author:
Weijia KONG
1
;
Yuting SUN
;
Yuansha GE
;
Guanghui ZHU
;
Xiaoyu ZHU
;
Jie LI
Author Information
1. 北京中医药大学研究生学院,北京 100029;中国中医科学院广安门医院,北京 100053
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
breast cancer;
elderly;
incidence;
forecasting;
trend analysis
- From:
China Cancer
2025;34(10):813-820
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
[Purpose]To analyze the incidence and changing trends of elderly breast cancer(de-fined as diagnosis at age ≥ 60 years old)in China and globally from 1990 to 2021,and to predict its trends from 2022 to 2035.[Methods]Data on the number of new cases and crude incidence rate of elderly breast cancer in China and globally were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)database.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)was calculated by sex and age group.The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC),to describe the incidence trend of elderly breast cancer from 1990 to 2021.The Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was applied to predict the incidence of elderly breast cancer from 2022 to 2035.[Results]From 1990 to 2021,the number of new breast cancer cases among elderly individuals globally increased from 416 444 to 1 023 776,while in China,the number rose from 26 371 to 158 085.The ASIR increased from 89.04/105 to 94.73/105 globally and from 27.24/105 to 58.40/105 in China.By sex,the ASIR of el-derly females increased from 155.19/105 to 170.54/105 globally and from 49.13/105 to 106.00/105 in China;the ASIR of elderly males increased from 2.78/105 to 4.72/105 globally and from 1.69/105 to 6.81/105 in China.By age group,from 1990 to 2021,the incidence rates of breast cancer in elderly female and male both peaked in the age group of 85～89 years old globally.In China,the most significant increases in incidence rates were observed in the age group of 60～64 years old for elderly females and the age group of 70～74 years old for elderly males;these two age groups had the highest incidence rates in their respective sexes in 2021.Joinpoint analysis showed that the ASIR of elderly breast cancer in China presented a continuous upward trend from 1990 to 2021(AAPC=2.51％),with the fastest growth during 2016-2019(APC=5.14％).The global ASIR showed only a slight fluctuating upward trend(AAPC=0.20％),with significant increases only during 1990-1995 and 2003-2010.Predictions from the BAPC model indicated that by 2035,the global ASIR of elderly breast cancer would reach 107.84/105(192.26/105 for females and 6.02/105 for males),while the ASIR in China would reach 104.35/105(188.08/105 for females and 13.32/105 for males).[Conclusion]From 1990 to 2021,the incidence of elderly breast cancer showed an upward trend both in China and globally,with a particularly pronounced increase in elderly male.The disease burden of elderly breast cancer in China is expected to continue increasing in the future,necessi-tating strengthened primary and secondary prevention measures,as well as optimized screening programs for the elderly population to reduce disease risks and improve prognosis.
