Development and verification of a risk prediction model for social dysfunction in middle-aged and elderly patients with ischemic stroke
10.3761/j.issn.0254-1769.2025.17.008
- VernacularTitle:中老年缺血性脑卒中患者社会功能障碍风险预测模型的构建及验证
- Author:
Meiqi MAO
1
;
Yao LIU
1
;
Yang HAO
1
;
Yaning ZHAO
1
;
Yanmei QIN
1
;
Ying HAN
1
Author Information
1. 063210 唐山市 华北理工大学护理与康复学院
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Middle-Aged and Elderly;
Ischemic Stroke;
Social Function;
Prediction Model;
Nursing Care
- From:
Chinese Journal of Nursing
2025;60(17):2095-2101
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To develop and validate a risk prediction model for social dysfunction in middle-aged and elderly patients with ischemic stroke.Methods A non-matched case-control study was conducted among ischemic stroke patients admitted to the neurology department of a tertiary hospital in Tangshan between August 2022 and March 2023.Patients who developed social dysfunction within 3 months after discharge were assigned to a case group,while those without it were assigned to a control group.Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant predictors and construct a nomogram-based prediction model.The model's discrimination and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.Internal validation was performed via bootstrap resampling,and clinical utility was evaluated using decision curve analysis.Results Logistic regression identified the following as significant risk factors for social dysfunction(P＜0.05):male gender,age≥60 years,primary education or below,rural residence,income＜3 000,cognitive impairment,low disability acceptance,poor self-management ability,suboptimal utilization of chronic disease resources,low future-oriented coping,and high cumulative ecological risk.The nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.874,with a sensitivity of 79.4％and specificity of 80.7％.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good calibration(x2=3.631,P=0.88).Conclusion The developed nomogram provides an effective tool for predicting the risk of social dysfunction in middle-aged and elderly ischemic stroke patients,facilitating early identification of high-risk individuals.
