Construction and Validation of Prognostic Nomogram Model for Elderly Pa-tients with Epithelial Ovarian Cancer
10.3969/j.issn.1003-6946.2025.10.017
- VernacularTitle:老年上皮性卵巢癌预后列线图模型的构建与验证
- Author:
Yingping ZHOU
1
;
Luqi YING
;
Xingcha WANG
;
Xin SUN
;
Rong ZHANG
;
Luwen ZHAO
Author Information
1. 承德医学院附属医院妇一科,河北承德 067000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Epithelial ovarian cancer;
Elderly;
SEER database;
Prognostic factors;
Nomogram
- From:
Journal of Practical Obstetrics and Gynecology
2025;41(10):865-871
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the prognostic factors of elderly patients with epithelial ovarian cancer(EOC),construct and validate a nomogram prediction model,and provide a basis for clinical diagnosis and treat-ment.Methods:A total of 13128 elderly patients pathologically diagnosed with EOC from 2010 to 2019 in the U.S.SEER database(version 8.4.1)were selected as internal validation data.They were randomly divided in a 7∶3 ratio,with 9138 cases in the training set and 3990 cases in the validation set.All factors were subjected to univari-ate Cox regression analysis;multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed for factors with P＜0.05 to ob-tain their independent prognostic risk factors,and a nomogram model for evaluating 1-,3-,and 5-year overall sur-vival rates was constructed,followed by internal validation.At the same time,the clinical data of 73 elderly EOC patients treated in the First Department of Gynecology at the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University from January 1,2016 to December 31,2022 were selected for external validation of the nomogram.After construc-ting the nomogram model,by obtaining the risk scores of each independent prognostic factor,the training set,vali-dation set,and external validation set were divided into low-and high-risk groups according to comparison of indi-vidual risk scores and the overall median,the K-M curves for different risk groups were plotted based on the medi-an survival time.Results:①Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that,age,marital status,histological type,International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics(FIGO)stage,differentiation degree,ser-um tumor carbohydrate antigen 125(CA125)level,unilateral of bilateral tumor,tumor size,positive lymph nodes,residual disease size after cytoreductive surgery,postoperative chemotherapy and surgical treatment were inde-pendent influencing factors for elderly women with EOC(P＜0.05).②According to the drawn column line dia-gram model,the C index values of the training set,the verification set and the external verification set were:0.750,0.732 and 0.798 respectively;the 5-year Area under the curve(AUC)in the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve of the external verification set in the three groups was 0.669,while the AUC values for 1-,3-,and 5-year(except the 5-year of external validation)were all greater than 0.700.③Based on the plotted K-M curves,the median survival time of the high-risk groups in the training set,validation set,and external validation set was 31,32 and 39 months respectively,and more than half of the patients in the low-risk group were still alive.The a-bove results all suggested that the column chart model had a high clinical application value for the prediction the 1-,3-,and 5-year overall survival rates of elderly patients with EOC.Conclusions:The nomogram model in this study can accurately evaluate the overall survival rate of elderly with EOC,and provide a basis for individualized treatment.
