Construction and application of the evaluation system for the risk of measles transmission in Henan Province
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20250401-00270
- VernacularTitle:河南省麻疹传播风险评估体系构建及应用
- Author:
Binghui DU
1
;
Xiaoxiao ZHANG
1
;
Daxing FENG
1
;
Wenhui WANG
1
;
Mingyu ZHANG
1
;
Zhanpei XIAO
1
;
Yanyang ZHANG
1
Author Information
1. 河南省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防与规划所，郑州410016
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Measles;
Surveillance;
Risk assessment;
Delphi method
- From:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
2025;59(8):1279-1286
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a risk assessment system for measles transmission in Henan Province and scientifically evaluate the risk levels of measles transmission in each city in Henan Province.Methods:The modified Delphi method was used to conduct two rounds of expert consultations to construct a risk assessment system for measles transmission. Data from all 191 cities, counties and districts in Henan Province were collected. The internal consistency (Cronbach′s α), content validity (content validity index, CVI) and structural validity (factor analysis) of the indicator system were evaluated to optimize the assessment framework. The indicator assignment method was adopted, and the comprehensive risk scores were obtained by adding the scores according to different weights. Results:Both rounds of consultation witnessed a 100% participation rate among all experts. The authority coefficients of experts in the two rounds were 0.920 and 0.925, and concordance coefficients were 0.201 ( χ 2=161.11, P<0.001) and 0.210 ( χ 2=163.80, P<0.001). The constructed assessment system comprised four dimensions—population immunity levels, surveillance quality, importation risk, and technical reserve of emergency response capacities—with a total of 30 indicators. Reliability analysis of the assessment system showed an overall Cronbach′s α of 0.741. Validity analysis revealed that all content validity indices reached 1.000, with principal factors cumulatively accounting for 67.625% of the variance, and all factor loadings exceeded 0.400. The measles transmission risk assessment in Henan Province using this assessment system identified Zhengzhou (92), Xinxiang (91), Xinyang (89), and Pingdingshan (73) as high-risk regions. Conclusion:The risk assessment system developed in this study demonstrates good reliability and validity, effectively reflecting measles transmission risks across Henan Province. The findings highlight the need to strengthen surveillance and control measures in high-risk areas, particularly in Zhengzhou.
