Study on Mortality Rate of COPD and its Trend in Sichuan Province based on Joinpoint and ARIMA Models
10.11783/j.issn.1002-3674.2025.04.009
- VernacularTitle:基于Joinpoint和ARIMA模型的四川省居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病死亡率及变化趋势分析
- Author:
Xiaoli WU
1
;
Qin ZHANG
;
Huan LUO
Author Information
1. 成都市新都区第三人民医院呼吸科 610504
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
COPD;
Joinpoint regression;
ARIMA;
Mortality;
Monitoring;
Prediction
- From:
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
2025;42(4):527-531
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the mortality rate and trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among residents in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2023.Methods The collected mortality monitoring data of residents from 2011 to 2023 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression the trend of COPD mortality rate in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2023.Based on the COPD mortality rate data of residents from 2011 to 2023 to established an autoregressive integrated moving average method(ARIMA)to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.Results From 2011 to 2023,the crude mortality rate of males was 79.74/100,000,which was higher than that of females(64.82/105),and the standardized mortality rate of males(48.02/105)was higher than that of females(40.51/105)(P<0.05).From 2011 to 2023,the annual percentage change(APC)of male mortality rate and female mortality rate were-4.51% and-5.59%(P<0.05),and the APC of standardized mortality rate of male and female were-9.35%,and-9.91%,with a significant downward trend(P<0.05).From 2011 to 2023,the COPD mortality rates of residents aged 45～54,55～64,65～74 and≥75 years in Sichuan Province were-12.04%,-10.88%,-13.87% and-7.19%,respectively,and with an obvious downward trend in different age groups(P<0.05).The crude mortality rate of COPD in urban decreased from 100.67/105 to 52.93/105,and APC of the crude mortality rate was-5.71%;while the crude mortality rate of rural residents decreased from 86.13/105 to 60.10/105,and APC of the crude mortality rate was-3.69%,with an obvious downward trend(P<0.05%).The standardized COPD mortality rate of urban residents in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2023 decreased from 79.13/105 to 24.09/105,and APC of the standardizedmortality rate was-10.09%;while the rural residents decreased from83.99/105 to 31.58/105,and APCwas-7.98%,with an obvious downward trend(P<0.05%).The ARIMA model was used to fit the COPD mortality rate in Sichuan Province in 2011～2023,and the COPD mortality rates in Sichuan Province in 2024～2028 were predicted to be 53.49/105,49.28/105,46.11/105,42.59/105 and 41.68/105,respectively.Conclusion The mortality rate of COPD among residents in Sichuan Province showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2023,with rural,male,and elderly populations being high-risk groups for COPD mortality.The ARIMA model had certain reference value for short-term prediction of COPD mortality rate.
