The plague epidemic and environmental factors in Lincang City from 1990 to 2020: a multiple correspondence analysis
10.3760/cma.j.cn231583-20240829-00315
- VernacularTitle:1990—2020年临沧市鼠疫流行情况与环境因素的多重对应分析
- Author:
Tingzao FU
1
;
Yuqiu HE
;
Danni ZHAO
;
Shilian WANG
;
Junjie ZHU
Author Information
1. 云南省临沧市人民医院办公室，临沧 677000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Plague;
Environmental factors;
Multiple correspondence analysis
- From:
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2025;44(2):128-132
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:This study aims to investigate the relationship between plague epidemics and environmental factors in Lincang City.Methods:Epidemiological survey data and environmental factors (including altitude, temperature, rainfall, and season) from plague occurrence sites in Lincang City from 1990 to 2020 were collected from Lincang Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the data sharing platform of the data sharing service network of the China Meteorological Administration, and analyzed using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA).Results:From 1990 to 2005, a total of 38 outbreaks of plague among rodents had been reported, 17 of which involved human beings. Since 2006, the plague had entered a dormant period, with no further epidemics reported up to 2020. The plague epidemic in Lincang City exhibited a clear seasonal variation, with the primary epidemic season occurred from autumn to early winter, peaking in September and October. Furthermore, the plague epidemic in Lincang City exhibited a pronounced spatial aggregation, with the primary affected regions including Linxiang County, Gengma Dai and Va Autonomous County, Zhenkang County, and Yun County. MCA showed that the Cronbach' α coefficients of all variables in the first and second dimensions were 0.87 and 0.82, respectively, and the characteristic roots were 3.27 and 2.91, respectively. The cumulative contribution rate of the two dimensions was 84.60%. Plague outbreaks were more likely in winter in areas at altitudes of > 1 400 - 1 650 m with 1 000 - 1 200 mm average annual rainfall and 16.0 - 17.9 ℃ average annual temperature, with increased severity. Regions at altitudes of > 500 - 700 m and > 900 - 1 150 m, with average annual rainfall of < 1 000, 1 201 - 1 400 and > 1 600 mm and average annual temperature of 18.0 - 19.9 ℃, showed a higher susceptibility to plague outbreaks, with notably pronounced incidences.Conclusions:The prevalence of plague epidemics is closely related to the local climatic conditions of natural foci in Lincang City. Therefore, it is imperative to enhance the monitoring of these climatic conditions, particularly meteorological data, to facilitate more effective prevention and control of plague outbreaks.
