Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province,2014-2023
10.12138/j.issn.1671-9638.20252077
- VernacularTitle:青海省2014-2023年细菌性痢疾流行特征及预测模型初探
- Author:
Yuqi JIANG
1
;
Jinhua ZHAO
;
Jiang LONG
;
Yang ZHANG
;
Ping DENG
;
Sheng-lin QIN
;
Huayi ZHANG
Author Information
1. 青海大学医学院公共卫生系,青海西宁 810001;青海省疾病预防控制中心业务部,青海西宁 810007
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
bacterial dysentery;
time series model;
ETS model;
epidemic characteristics;
predict
- From:
Chinese Journal of Infection Control
2025;24(10):1389-1394
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To compare five time series models and predict the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province in 2024,and provide reference for the prevention and control.Methods The epidemic charac-teristics of bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 were analyzed.R4.3.1 software was used for establishing seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model,Holt-Winters triple exponential smoothing(Holt Winters)model,exponential smoothing(ETS)model,neural network autoregression(NNAR)model,and trigonometric seasonality,Box-Cox transformation,ARMA errors,trend and seasonal components(TBATS)model.Fitting effect of the models was analyzed and accuracy was compared.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 5 833 cases of bacterial dysentery were reported in Qinghai Province,without deaths,male to fe-male ratio being 1.23∶1.The highest incidence was reported in 2016(15.45 per 100 000 people),and the lowest in-cidence was reported in 2023(3.68 per 100 000 people).Incidence increased from 2014 to 2016,then decreased,showing an obvious overall downward trend.Case number in＜5 years age group was the highest,accounting for 29.76％of the total cases(n=1 736).Regarding population distribution,the top three were children in childcare institutions and scattered children(35.56％),farmers(24.65％),and students(12.62％).Except the additive Holt-Winters model,the predicted trends of the other four models were consistent with actuality.The ETS model had the best fitting effect,with a relatively balanced overall performance(training set:MAE=0.13,RMSE=0.21,MAPE=19.55％;testing set:MAE=0.11,RMSE=0.16,MAPE=28.66％).It is recommended to pre-dict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Qinghai Province based on ETS model.Conclusion From 2014 to 2023,bacterial dysentery in Qinghai Province showed a downward trend,with the peak of the epidemic from June to Au-gust.Preschool and scattered children were high-risk groups.Among the five prediction models,ETS model has the best fitting effect,and can be used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery.
