Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for Ventilator-associated Pneumonia after Endovascular Treatment in Patients with Hy-pertension Complicating Acute Cerebral Infarction
10.11969/j.issn.1673-548X.2025.04.018
- VernacularTitle:高血压并发急性脑梗死患者介入术后呼吸机相关性肺炎预测模型构建与验证
- Author:
Xiaohua HE
1
;
Wenfei LIANG
1
;
Jingling ZHU
1
Author Information
1. 523000 广州中医药大学东莞医院脑病科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hypertension;
Acute large vessel occlusive cerebral infarction;
Endovascular therapy;
Ventilator-associated pneumo-nia;
Nomogram
- From:
Journal of Medical Research
2025;54(4):96-101,129
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective Through the analysis of the clinical characteristics of post-interventional complications of ventilator-associ-ated pneumonia(VAP)in patients with hypertension and acute large vessel occlusive cerebral infarction(AIS-LVO),we aim to develop and validate a risk prediction model.Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 107 patients hospitalized for hypertension with AIS-LVO at Dongguan Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between July 2020 and Au-gust 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on their hospitalization:the VAP group,consisting of 64 patients who devel-oped VAP,and the non-VAP group,comprising 43 patients who did not experience VAP.Least absolute shrinkage and selection opera-tor regression(LASSO)analysis was employed to identify potential predictors.Subsequently,a nomogram model was constructed using multifactorial Logistic regression analysis.The model's discriminative ability,calibration,and clinical utility were assessed using the area(AUC)under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results In 107 patients with hypertension and AIS-LVO who underwent interventional surgery,the incidence of VAP was 59.8％.The results revealed statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of age,presence of atrial fibrillation,admission national institutes of health stroke scale(NIHSS)score,admission glasgow coma scale(GCS)score,impaired consciousness,swallowing dysfunction,opera-tive time,postoperative 24-hour systemic inflammatory response index(SIRI),duration of mechanical ventilation,length of ICU stay,and the presence of an indwelling gastrostomy tube(P＜0.05).Additionally,the incidence of poor functional outcomes was 57.8％in the VAP group compared to 14.0％in the non-VAP group,indicating a worse prognosis for patients in the VAP group.The variables i-dentified through LASSO regression screening were included in a multifactorial Logistic regression analysis.This analysis revealed that the SIRI and the duration of mechanical ventilation were independent risk factors for the development of VAP following intervention in patients with hypertension and AIS-LVO(P＜0.05).Conversely,the admission GCS score was identified as a protective factor(P＜0.05).These three indicators were utilized to construct a prognostic nomogram model.The model's internal validity was assessed using the Boot-strap method with 1000 resamples,and the calibration curves were found to be in close agreement with the ideal fitted line,exhibiting a mean absolute error of 0.029,indicating good curve accuracy.The Logistic regression model's goodness of fit was evaluated using the Hos-mer and Lemeshow test,which yielded a x2 value of 5.38 and a P-value of 0.716,suggesting a good fit.The AUC of the model was 0.812(95％confidence interval 0.730-0.894),and the DCA indicated that the model has favorable clinical applicability.Conclusion A prediction model based on admission GCS score,postoperative 24-hour SIRI,and duration of mechanical ventilation demonstrates a robust predictive value for the incidence of VAP following intervention in patients with hypertension and acute ischemic stroke with AIS-LVO.
