Construction and evaluation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury in severe burn patients
- VernacularTitle:严重烧伤患者发生急性肾损伤的风险预测模型构建与评价
- Author:
He-dong XIANG
1
;
Wen-zhao CHEN
;
Hong-zhuang ZHANG
;
Li-tao WEI
;
Pei ZHAN
;
Wei YANG
;
Chang-quan LI
;
Meng QIAO
;
Chao-wei CHEN
;
Zhi-qiang TIAN
Author Information
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords: burn; acute kidney injury; nomogram; SOFA score; risk prediction model
- From: Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2025;34(10):886-891
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
- Abstract: Objective To explore the influencing factors of acute kidney injury in severe burn patients,and to construct a visual risk nomogram model.Methods A total of 390 patients with severe burn admitted to the Institute of Burn Frostbite and Tissue Function Reconstruction of Chinese People's Armed Police Force Specialty Medical Center from January 2018 to January 2022 were collected as an internal training data set,and 50 patients with severe burn admitted from February to December 2022 were collected as an external validation data set.The 390 patients of the internal training data set were divided into the acute kidney injury group and the non-acute kidney injury group according to the occurrence of acute kidney injury,and the baseline data of patients in the two groups were compared.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of acute kidney injury in severe burn patients of the internal training data set,and a nomogram model was drawn.Subsequently,the model was verified both internally and externally.Kaplan-Meier analysis and Log-rank test were used to compare the 90-day survival rate of patients between the acute kidney injury group and the non-acute kidney injury group.Results The burn area(OR=1.18,95%CI:1.06 to 2.36,P=0.004),sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)score(OR=1.81,95%CI:1.21 to 5.92,P<0.001),inhalation injury(OR=3.21,95%CI:1.23 to 6.35,P<0.001),neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio(NLR)(OR=1.22,95%CI:1.05 to 3.65,P<0.001)and albumin(ALB)(OR=0.78,95%CI:0.57 to 0.92,P=0.011)were the independent risk factors for the development of acute kidney injury in severe burn patients.The nomogram model was established by the above factors.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of the internal training data set was 0.833(95%CI:0.752 to 0.935),the sensitivity was 81.2%,and the specificity was 83.2%.The AUC of the external validation data set was 0.842(95%CI:0.762 to 0.912),the sensitivity 87.2%,and the specificity was 78.7%.The 90-day survival rate of patients in the acute kidney injury group after burns was significantly lower than that in the non-acute kidney injury group(P<0.001).Conclusion Larger burn area,higher SOFA score,combined inhalation injury,increased NLR,and decreased ALB level are the risk factors for the occurrence of acute kidney injury in severe burn patients,which are related to the 90-day survival rate of patients after burns.The nomogram model based on the risk factors can provide certain reference for clinical individualized prevention and treatment of acute kidney injury in severe burn patients.
