Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting the failure of reaching hemoglobin A1c target in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus
10.3969/j.issn.1006-6187.2025.07.001
- VernacularTitle:建立2型糖尿病患者糖化血红蛋白未达标列线图预测模型的研究
- Author:
Xu GUO
1
;
Guimao YANG
;
Xia ZHANG
;
Yan SUI
;
Xuebing CHENG
;
Hong LIU
;
Yaxing WU
;
Jian FENG
;
Yanfeng REN
Author Information
1. 261000 潍坊,山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Diabetes mellitus,type 2;
Hemoglobin A1c;
Nomogram;
Predictive model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Diabetes
2025;33(7):481-486
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To construct a nomogram prediction model for predicting hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c)failure in type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)patients.Methods A total of 936 inpatients with T2DM admitted to the Department of Endocrinology of the Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University from January 2021 to January 2022 were selected as the research objects and divided into the non-standard group(HbA1c≥7%,n=801)and the standard group(HbA1c<7%,n=135).Univariate analysis was used to screen the related factors of HbA1c failure.Logistic regression multivariate model was used to analyze the influencing factors of HbA1c failure in T2DM patients.The R language was used to construct a nomogram,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC)was used to evaluate the predictive ability of the model.The C-index and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model.Results There were statistically significant differences in triglyceride(TG),low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,direct bilirubin,urinary albumin/creatinine ratio(UACR),self-monitoring of blood glucose(SMBG),meat and vegetable pairing,hot pot,whole grain and animal viscera consumption between the two groups(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that TG(OR 1.699,95%CI 1.298～2.222),UACR(OR 1.003,95%CI 1.001～1.005),SMGB(OR 0.480,95%CI 0.313～0.735),more meat and less vegetables(OR 1.432,95%CI 1.062～1.931)were the influencing factors of HbA1c failure.The AUC of the nomogram prediction model based on the influencing factors was 0.711,with C-index 0.710(95%CI 0.663～0.758)and good calibration(χ2=11.185,P=0.191).Conclusions The nomogram prediction model for HbA1c failure in T2DM patients established based on TG,UACR,SMGB,meat and vegetarian mix has good discrimination and calibration,which can provide certain reference value for warning of poor blood glucose control.
