Analysis of influencing factors for ischemic stroke in patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial internal carotid artery stenosis and development of a nomogram model
10.3969/j.issn.1672-5921.2025.06.001
- VernacularTitle:单侧颈内动脉颅外段中-重度狭窄患者发生缺血性卒中的影响因素分析及列线图模型构建
- Author:
Yaqin HUANG
1
;
Yusen LIU
;
Jia YANG
;
Xinyi CAI
;
Qi FANG
;
Pinjing HUI
Author Information
1. 215006 苏州大学附属第一医院神经外科
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Carotid stenosis;
Atherosclerotic plaque characteristics;
Hemodynamics;
Ischemic stroke;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Cerebrovascular Diseases
2025;22(6):363-372
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To explore the influencing factors for ischemic stroke in patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial internal carotid artery(ICA)stenosis and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods This study retrospectively and consecutively enrolled patients diagnosed with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis and exhibited indications for carotid endarterectomy(CEA)hospitalized in the Department of Neurosurgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University,between August 2019 and September 2024.The patients were divided into a stroke group and a non-stroke group,based on their clinical presentation and head MRI results.Baseline characteristics and clinical data including age,sex,body mass index,blood pressure(systolic and diastolic pressure[＜140 mmHg,140-＜160 mmHg,≥160 mmHg]),hypertension,diabetes,smoking and alcohol consumption history,use of statin and antiplatelet medication,fasting blood glucose,high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),triglycerides(TG),total cholesterol(TC)were collected and ratios between LDL-C/HDL-C,TG/HDL-C,non-HDL-C(calculated according to equation:non-HDL-C=TC-HDL-C),and non-HDL-C/HDL-C(nHHR)were calculated based on aforementioned data.The clinical and baseline data were then compared between two groups.Imaging data included side of carotid artery stenosis(identified through neck vascular ultrasound,CT angiography and/or DSA),degree of carotid stenosis(with 50％-69％categorized as moderate stenosis,and,70％-99％as severe stenosis),plaque echogenicity(predominantly low,medium or high),plaque calcification(surface and basal calcification),plaque ulceration(exists or not),bilateral middle cerebral artery(MCA)hemodynamic parameters measured by transcranial Doppler ultrasound(including,mean flow velocity[Vm],peak systolic velocity[Vs],end-diastolic velocity[Vd]),and the pulsatility index(PI,calculated via formula:PI=[Vs-Vd]/Vm).The hemodynamic parameter differences(△Vm,△Vs,△Vd,△PI)between the healthy and affected MCA were calculated.The baseline,clinical and imaging data with P＜0.05 in univariate analysis were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis using forward stepwise selection to identify influencing factors for ischemic stroke in patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis,and a nomogram prediction model was then constructed base on the analyzed results.Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted,and the area under the curve(AUC)was calculated to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.Delong's test was used to compare AUC differences between single indicators and the combined model.Results A total of 166 patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis and CEA indication were included.In which,99 patients were in the stroke group and 67 patients were in the non-stroke group.The stroke group had a significantly higher proportion of hypertension patients(78.8％[78/99]vs.59.7％[40/67],P=0.008),higher systolic blood pressure([152±15]mmHg vs.[137±18]mmHg,P＜0.01),higher diastolic blood pressure([84±10]mmHg vs.[80±10]mmHg,P=0.042),higher TG(1.33[0.95,1.77]mmol/L vs.1.10[0.87,1.48]mmol/L,P=0.019),higher TG/HDL-C(1.35[0.97,2.08]vs.1.07[0.81,1.52],P=0.003),and higher nHHR(2.89[2.25,3.61]vs.2.48[1.93,3.27],P=0.027)than the non-stroke group.The HDL-C was significantly lower in the stroke group(0.96[0.80,1.15]mmol/L vs.1.03[0.91,1.16]mmol/L,P=0.014).Statistically significant differences were also observed in the distribution of systolic blood pressure between the groups(P＜0.01).No significant differences were found in other clinical data(all P＞0.05).The proportion of patients with carotid plaque ulceration was higher in the stroke group(35.4％[35/99]vs.16.4％[11/67],P=0.007),while stenosis side,stenosis degree,plaque echogenicity,and plaque calcification type showed no significant differences between the groups(all P＞0.05).△Vm(19[4,32]cm/s vs.10[-3,21]cm/s,P=0.001),△Vs(32[9,55]cm/s vs.24[3,40]cm/s,P=0.005),and △Vd(10[-1,19]cm/s vs.6[-3,12]cm/s,P=0.006)were significantly higher in the stroke group.No significant difference was found in △PI(P=0.076).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified high systolic blood pressure(OR,1.063,95％CI 1.036-1.090,P＜0.01),high TG/HDL-C(OR,2.802,95％CI 1.551-5.061,P=0.001),high △Vm(OR,1.032,95％CI 1.010-1.055,P=0.004),and plaque ulceration(OR,2.777,95％CI 1.123-6.871,P=0.027)as independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis.Systolic blood pressure,TG/HDL-C,△Vm and plaque ulceration were involved in the construction of a combined predictive model for ischemic stroke in the targeted patient group(with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis).The AUC of the combined prediction model was 0.828(95％CI 0.765-0.892,P＜0.01),which was significantly higher than the predictive efficacy of any single factor(all P＜0.01).Conclusions High systolic blood pressure,high TG/HDL-C ratio,high △Vm,and plaque ulceration are independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with unilateral moderate-to-severe extracranial ICA stenosis.The nomogram prediction model based on these factors demonstrates good predictive value for assessing ischemic stroke risk in this patient population.
