Comparison of differences in the mortality,disease burden and trend projections of smoking-attributable prostate cancer 1990-2021:results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study
10.3969/j.issn.1009-8291.2025.09.008
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年全球吸烟归因前列腺癌死亡率及疾病负担的差异分析及趋势预测:基于2021年全球疾病负担研究结果
- Author:
Taoze JI
1
;
Xin GUAN
1
;
Qingyao JIANG
1
;
Naipeng SHI
1
;
Yijie HU
1
;
Junjie YU
1
Author Information
1. 江苏省苏北人民医院泌尿外科,江苏扬州 225000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
smoking;
prostate cancer;
Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD);
estimated annual percentage change(EAPC);
socio-demographic index(SDI)
- From:
Journal of Modern Urology
2025;30(9):765-778
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of mortality and disease burden of smoking-related prostate cancer(PCa)from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the future trends,so as to provide evidence-based insights for optimizing regional PCa prevention policies and smoking cessation interventions.Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD)2021,annual mortality,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),years of life lost(YLLs),years lived with disability(YLDs),and age-standardized rates(ASRs)for PCa across 204 countries and 21 regions from 1990 to 2021 were obtained.Estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to assess the disease burden and mortality of smoking-related PCa across global,regional,socio-demographic index(SDI),and age groups.An autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was employed to predict trends in these indicators up to 2050.Results In 2021,smoking-related PCa caused 12 992 global deaths,a 30.74％increase compared to 1990.However,from 1990 to 2021,the global age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR),age-standardized YLDs rate(ASYR),and age-standardized YLLs rate(ASLR)for smoking-related PCa declined,with EAPCs being-1.43(95％CI:-1.77--1.12),-1.39(95％CI:-1.66--1.12),-0.41(95％CI:-0.67--0.15)and-1.51(95％CI:-1.78--1.23).In 2021,the region with the highest number of deaths from PCa was Asia(4663 deaths),followed by Europe(4647 deaths),and Oceania had the lowest number of deaths(9 deaths).From 1990 to 2021,the mortality rate of PCa in most regions generally showed a downward trend.High SDI regions showed the most significant declines in ASMR,ASDR,and ASLR[EAPCs:-3.17(95％CI:-3.31--3.02),-2.91(95％CI:-3.02--2.83),and-3.22(95％CI:-3.35--3.09)].For ASYR,only high-SDI regions exhibited a decline,whereas low-middle-SDI regions saw the largest increase[EAPC:1.26(95％CI:1.19-1.33)].In 2021,the number of PCa deaths was more concentrated in the age groups of 70-74 and 75-79,with 2312 and 2278 deaths,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,ASMR,ASDR,and ASLR showed an overall downward trend,EAPC were-2.84(95％CI:-3.21--1.83),-2.77(95％CI:-3.13--1.75),and-2.84(95％CI:-3.14--1.71),with the most significant decline observed in individuals aged 35-39.Projections to 2050 indicated continuing declines in all burden metrics,which would stabilize in later years.Conclusion Despite a global decline in smoking-related PCa burden over the past three decades,significant regional disparities persist,with low-and middle-income countries facing ongoing challenges.Implementing stricter tobacco control policies is critical to mitigating smoking-related health risks.
