Study of school influenza epidemic prediction based on Bayesian Structural Time Series model and multi-source data integration
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20241120-00736
- VernacularTitle:基于贝叶斯结构时间序列模型和多源数据汇集的学校流感疫情预测研究
- Author:
Huiyang SUN
1
;
Qiuying LYU
;
Fengjuan CHEN
;
Honglin WANG
;
Yanpeng CHENG
;
Zhigao CHEN
;
Zhen ZHANG
;
Ling YIN
;
Xuan ZOU
Author Information
1. 南华大学公共卫生学院，衡阳 421000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Bayesian Structural Time Series model;
Influenza;
Spatiotemporal analysis;
Prediction;
School
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2025;46(7):1188-1195
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the surveillance data of influenza in students reported by medical institutions and school absenteeism due to illness, and evaluate the application of Bayesian Structural Time Series model (BSTS) in the prediction of school influenza epidemic.Methods:A total of 13 schools in Dapeng new district of Shenzhen were selected. The incidence data of influenza in schools in Shenzhen from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 were collected from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the illness related school absentence data during this period were collected from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System, and the spatiotemporal correlation between the data from two systems was analyzed and compared. BSTS was used to make long-term predictions of the monthly incidence of influenza in students in 2019 and short-term predictions of the weekly incidence of influenza in week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019 by using the data from two systems.Results:There was a temporal correlation between the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and the data from Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System ( r=0.93, P<0.001), and the lag of the former one was 1 day ( r=0.73, P<0.001). Influenza outbreaks were randomly distributed in different schools in Shenzhen, and there was no spatial correlation. The root mean square error ( RMSE) and mean absolute error ( MAE) were 0.35 and 0.28, respectively, in the long-term prediction, and the RMSE was 0.33 and 0.34, and the MAE was 0.26 and 0.28, respectively, in the short-term predictions of week 1-8 and week 45-52 of 2019, respectively, showing good prediction accuracy and fitting effect. Conclusion:By analyzing the data from China Disease Control and Prevention Information System and Shenzhen Student Health Surveillance System with BSTS, the dynamics of the school influenza epidemic can be accurately predicted, and effective technical support can be provided for the early warning and prevention and control of influenza epidemic.
