Analysis of the trend in the burden of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2021
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240812-00497
- VernacularTitle:1990-2021年中国结核病疾病负担变化趋势分析
- Author:
Jianjun MA
1
;
Tiejuan ZHANG
;
Shihui YU
;
Qinglong ZHAO
Author Information
1. 吉林省结核病防治科学研究院诊疗质量评价所，长春 130062
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Tuberculosis;
Burden of disease;
Incidence
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2025;46(6):951-959
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To assess the burden and development trends of tuberculosis (TB) in China from 1990 to 2021 to provide a reference for TB prevention strategies.Methods:Utilizing the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study data, the study evaluates the burden of TB and latent TB infection (LTBI) in China using age-standardized incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and infection rates. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze changing trends, and the autoregressive moving average model was integrated to forecast multidrug-resistant TB incidence and LTBI infection rates from 2022 to 2030.Results:In 2021, the age-standardized TB incidence in China was 36.28 per 100 000, the age-standardized prevalence was 30 557.45 per 100 000, the age-standardized DALY rate was 76.22 per 100 000, and the LTBI age-standardized infection rate was 30.48%. Compared to 1990, these figures dropped by 66.72%, 2.82%, 89.41%, and 2.47%, respectively. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, DALY rate, and infection rate were elevated in individuals aged ≥70 years, and the TB burden was greater in males than in females. The age-standardized TB incidence declined between 1990 and 2021, while the proportion of multidrug-resistant TB patients among newly diagnosed cases, nationwide rose from 3.11% (36 367/1 167 807) in 1990 to 4.12% (25 431/617 725) in 2021. The LTBI age-standardized infection rate exhibited a fluctuating declining trend, averaging a decrease of 0.09%. Predictions for 2022-2030 indicate that China's multidrug-resistant TB incidence will decline slowly, and the LTBI infection rate will initially rise and then gradually fall, reaching 1.10/100 000 and 31.11%, respectively, by 2030.Conclusions:The TB burden in China declined from 1990 to 2021, but TB prevalence and LTBI infection rates remain high, especially among multidrug-resistant cases, males, and the elderly. Implementing systematic LTBI interventions, enhancing early detection/diagnosis in key populations such as the elderly, and promoting short-course treatments are recommended.
