Construction of a nomogram prediction model for postoperative intesti-nal adhesion in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2025.09.006
- VernacularTitle:腹腔镜胆囊切除术后并发肠粘连的列线图预测模型构建
- Author:
Zhen-fei CHU
1
;
Qi MIAO
1
;
Ping LIU
1
;
Jie ZHOU
1
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学附属滁州医院 急诊外科(安徽 滁州 239000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Laparoscopic cholecystectomy;
Intestinal adhesions;
Influencing factors;
Nomogram;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2025;28(9):702-706
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the influencing factors of postoperative intestinal adhesion in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy(LC),and to construct a nomogram prediction model based on this.Methods:A total of 265 patients who underwent LC in our hospital from November 2021 to March 2025 were retrospectively selected and randomly divided into a training set(185 cases)and a validation set(80 cases)according to the ratio of 7∶3.According to the presence or absence of postoperative intestinal adhesion,185 patients in the training set were divided into occur-rence group(28 cases)and non-occurrence group(157 cases).In the validation set,13 cases occurred and 67 cases did not occur.The clinical data of patients were collected to analyze the influencing factors of postoperative intestinal adhe-sion,and a nomogram model was constructed based on this.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to analyze the predictive efficacy of the prediction model on the risk of postoperative intestinal adhesion.Decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to analyze the clinical benefit of the prediction model.Result:The proportion of patients aged≥65 years,complicated with diabetes,indwelling drainage tube,residual abdominal infection,and WBC level in the occurrence group were higher than those in the non-occurrence group(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=3.025,95%CI:1.453-6.296),diabetes(OR=3.836,95%CI:1.557-9.450),indwelling drainage tube(OR=5.312,95%CI:1.898-14.864)and residual abdominal infection(OR=6.174,95%CI:2.914-13.079)were independent influencing factors for postoperative intestinal adhesion(P<0.05).The corresponding risk rate of the nomogram model based on Logistic results ranged from 0.10 to 0.80,and the C-index was 0.842(95%CI:0.765-0.919).The calibration curve of predicting postoperative intestinal adhesion was close to the ideal curve(P>0.05).The ROC of the training set showed that the sensitivity and specificity of the model in predicting postoperative intestinal adhesion were 85.70%and 88.50%,respectively,and the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.882(P<0.05).In the validation set,the sensitivity,speci-ficity and AUC of ROC curve were 81.30%,84.10%and 0.860(P<0.05),respectively.DCA curve showed that the pre-diction model could obtain the maximum clinical benefit at the threshold probability of 0-0.23.Conclusion:The pre-diction model based on age,diabetes,indwelling drainage tube and residual abdominal infection has a good predictive value for the risk of intestinal adhesion after LC.
