Prediction model for mortality of patients with femoral neck fracture in hospital
10.3760/cma.j.cn121113-20241220-00746
- VernacularTitle:股骨颈骨折患者院内死亡的预测模型
- Author:
Lin TUO
1
;
Dazhi ZHANG
;
Deyong HUANG
;
Xiaoyuan BAO
Author Information
1. 北京大学医学部医院管理处，北京 100191
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Hip fractures;
Orthopedic procedures;
Risk factors;
Death
- From:
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics
2025;45(5):280-287
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the risk factors of in-hospital mortality in patients with femoral neck fracture and establish a prediction model for in-hospital mortality.Methods:From 2014 to 2023, a total of 4,028,102 hospitalized patients from six directly affiliated hospitals and two co-constructed affiliated hospitals of Peking University were retrospectively analyzed. Among them, 4,744 patients were hospitalized with femoral neck fractures, including 1,486 males and 3,258 females, aged 74±13.3 years (range, 19-103 years). Gender, age, length of hospital stay, hospitalization costs, preoperative comorbidities, treatment methods, anesthesia methods, and in-hospital mortality were extracted from the medical records. According to the presence or absence of in-hospital death, the patients were divided into death group and survival group. The differences in general data and clinical indicators between the two groups were compared, and the indicators with statistically significant differences were included in binary logistic regression analysis to screen the risk factors for in-hospital death in patients with femoral neck fracture. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for predicting in-hospital mortality of femoral neck fracture was drawn, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.Results:There were 30 cases in the death group and 4,714 cases in the survival group, with a mortality rate of 0.63%. Among the dead patients, 20 had undergone hip replacement, and 10 had received non-surgical treatment. In the death group, age ( t=7.524, P<0.001), length of hospital stay ( t=3.802, P<0.001), hospitalisation cost ( t=3.961, P<0.001), rate of non-surgical treatment ( P<0.001), anaesthesia modality ( P=0.002), dementia ( P=0.045), malignant tumour ( P<0.001), renal insufficiency (χ 2=27.901, P<0.001), hypertension (χ 2=4.155, P=0.042), cerebral infarction (χ 2=8.271, P=0.004), urinary infections ( P=0.043), electrolyte disorders (χ 2=16.660, P<0.001), post-cholecystectomy ( P=0.070), abnormal liver function ( P=0.015), schizophrenia ( P=0.062), myocardial infarction (χ 2=19.057, P<0.001), diabetes mellitus with end-organ damage ( P=0.036), congestive heart failure (χ 2=93.122, P<0.001), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (χ 2=27.714, P<0.001) were greater than in the survival group, and the differences were statistically significance ( P<0.10). Bicategory logistic regression analysis showed age ( OR=1.08, P=0.008), non-surgical treatment ( OR=2.87, P=0.017), combined malignancy ( OR=9.35, P<0.001), renal insufficiency ( OR=4.07, P=0.004), hypertension ( OR=4.45, P=0.007), cerebral infarction ( OR=2.42, P=0.040), electrolyte disorders ( OR=4.29, P=0.009), schizophrenia ( OR=41.23, P=0.002), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( OR=3.84, P=0.002), and congestive heart failure ( OR=7.08, P<0.001) were the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality of femoral neck fracture. The AUC and its 95% confidence interval (CI) for the predictive model were 0.908(0.84, 0.97), indicating excellent predictive value. Conclusion:Elderly, non-surgical treatment, malignant tumor, renal insufficiency, hypertension, cerebral infarction, electrolyte disturbance, schizophrenia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure are associated with higher in-hospital mortality in patients with femoral neck fracture.
