Study on the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality risk in seven provinces of China
10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240911-00569
- VernacularTitle:中国七省份热浪与跌倒死亡风险的关联研究
- Author:
Zhiying JIANG
1
;
Ruilin MENG
;
Ruoyi ZHANG
;
Xuelong GU
;
Jianxiong HU
;
Min YU
;
Yang CHEN
;
Chunliang ZHOU
;
Biao HUANG
;
Ziyi LIANG
;
Sujuan CHEN
;
Jianhao LI
;
Guanhao HE
;
Tao LIU
;
Hua GUO
;
Wenjun MA
Author Information
1. 暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院预防医学系，广州 510632
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Heatwave;
Fall;
Mortality;
Distributed lag nonlinear model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
2025;46(4):566-572
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To evaluate the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality.Methods:A total of 61 421 fall-related mortality from 2013 to 2022 in 7 provinces of China were included in a time-stratified case-crossover design, with daily meteorological data derived from the fifth generation European Reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Conditional logistic regression chimeric distributed lag nonlinear model was used to analyze the association between heatwaves and fall-related mortality and stratified analysis was conducted according to gender and age.Results:Heatwaves were associated with an increased risk of fall-related morality. The risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves was higher than during non-heatwave periods ( OR=1.11, 95% CI: 1.05-1.18). The attributable fraction of fall-related motality due to heatwaves was 10.25% (95% CI: 4.49%-15.36%). For each 1 ℃ increase above the heatwave threshold, the risk of fall-related mortality increased by 34% ( OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.02-1.76). The effect of heatwave duration on fall-related mortality was not statistically significant. Stratified analyses indicated that women experienced a higher risk of fall-related mortality during heatwaves ( OR=1.13, 95% CI: 1.04-1.22) compared to man ( OR=1.10, 95% CI: 1.04-1.17). Conclusions:Heatwave increases the risk of fall-related mortality, and the intensity of heatwaves modify this risk. Women are vulnerable populations.
