Profiling of the risk factors and a prediction model for upper arm port related infections
10.16718/j.1009-7708.2025.02.004
- VernacularTitle:上臂输液港相关感染危险因素分析和预测模型构建
- Author:
Mengsu ZHANG
1
;
Shengxi XU
;
Jie ZHANG
;
Guangxin JIN
;
Xuebin ZHANG
;
Jun PU
Author Information
1. 上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院心内科,上海 200127
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
upper arm ports;
infection;
prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy
2025;25(2):140-148
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the risk factors for upper arm ports(UAP)related infections and develop a nomogram for predicting the UAP related infections.Methods Patients(n=6 028)with UAP between 2014 and 2023 in Renji Hospital,Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine were included and assigned to a training set(n=4 219)or a validation set(n=1 809).Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator(LASSO)regression were built and non-zero factors were screened out.Multivariate logistic regression was performed for these non-zero factors to screen significant factors out for constructing a prediction model.The performance of the model was evaluated by the area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,calibration curves,the decision curve analysis(DCA)curve,and clinical impact curves(CICs)in both training set and validation set.Results The model incorporated gender,venous access,venous status,catheter-related thrombosis(CRT),and diameter of catheter.The model performed well.The AUC of ROC was 0.801 in the training set and 0.746 in the validation set.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,indicating good discriminative ability of the model.The DCA curve suggested that the model could help make beneficial clinical decisions when the risk assessment value was 30％-41％.CICs proved that the model had good clinical value.Conclusions A model was successfully constructed to predict UAP-related infections.The brachial/basilic vein and 5F catheter was proposed as the first choice.Thicker catheter diameter,male,CRT,abnormal venous status,and axillary vein approach may increase the risk of UAP related infection.
