Construction of Nomogram prediction model for pulmonary infection in patients after aortic dissection surgery
10.3760/cma.j.cn211501-20240906-02438
- VernacularTitle:主动脉夹层患者术后肺部感染Nomogram预测模型的构建研究
- Author:
Wenqian CAI
1
;
Dequan WU
;
Wenjing LYU
;
Bo LIU
;
Yue SUN
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学护理学院，合肥 230032
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Nursing care;
Aortic dissection;
Pulmonary infection;
Risk factors;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2025;41(28):2161-2168
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct Nomogram prediction model for pulmonary infection in patients after aortic dissection surgery, so as to provide reference for early screening of high-risk groups and carrying out preventive nursing measures.Methods:This was a retrospective case-control study. The case data of patients after aortic dissection surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from January 2020 to October 2023 were selected by convenient sampling method and divided into pulmonary infection group and non-pulmonary infection group according to whether pulmonary infection occurred within one week after surgery. The risk factors of pulmonary infection after aortic dissection surgery were analyzed by Logistic regression and the Nomogram prediction model was constructed by R4.3.3.The model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve and decision curve analysis.Results:A total of 324 patients with aortic dissection were collected, and the incidence of postoperative pulmonary infection was 26.9%(87/324). There were 87 cases in pulmonary infection group, including 65 males and 22 females, with a median age of 58.0 years. There were 237 cases in non-pulmonary infection group, including 180 males and 57 females, with a median age of 60.0 years. Finally, operation time ( OR=1.015, 95% CI 1.007-1.022), intraoperative blood transfusion ( OR=1.001, 95% CI 1.000-1.022), mechanical ventilation time ( OR=7.624, 95% CI 2.679-21.692), postoperative invasive operation ( OR=6.310, 95% CI 1.545-25.778) and postoperative renal insufficiency ( OR=6.723, 95% CI 1.219-37.063) were independent risk factors for pulmonary infection after aortic dissection surgery. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.978, sensitivity of 93.7%, and specificity of 90.8%. The calibration curve showed good consistency, and the decision curve analysis curve showed good net benefit. Conclusions:Operation time, intraoperative blood transfusion, mechanical ventilation time, postoperative invasive operation and postoperative renal insufficiency are high-risk factors of pulmonary infection after aortic dissection surgery and the constructed predictive model has predictive value.
