Development of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Postoperative Recurrence of Ovarian Endometriosis after Conservative Surgery
- VernacularTitle:卵巢子宫内膜异位囊肿保守性手术后复发列线图预测模型的构建
- Author:
Miao YU
1
;
Jinchai ZHAO
1
;
Huanyu JIN
1
;
Congyu ZHOU
1
;
Lin ZHANG
1
;
Yanfang DU
1
Author Information
1. 河北医科大学第二医院妇科,河北 石家庄 050000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Ovarian endometriosis;
Recurrence;
Influence factors;
Nomogram;
Predictive model
- From:
Journal of Practical Obstetrics and Gynecology
2025;41(4):341-345
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:The prediction model of postoperative recurrence of ovarian endometriosis cyst(OEM)was constructed to provide a reference for evaluating postoperative recurrence of OEM patients.Methods:The clinical,pathological and follow-up data of 342 patients who underwent the initial laparoscopic ovarian cystectomy for OEM at The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 1,2017 to October 31,2021 were retro-spectively analyzed.Based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis,the relevant factors affecting OEM recurrence were identified.According to the results of multivariate analysis,a nomogram was drawn.The C index and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve were used to test the efficiency of the prediction model.Results:The 2-year recurrence rate of OEM patients was 20.4%and the 5-year recurrence rate was 35.2%.Uni-variate and multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that menstrual cycle(HR 0.916,95%CI 0.860-0.976,P=0.006),delivery≥1(HR 0.376,95%CI 0.171-0.827,P=0.015),CA125≥100 U/ml(HR 1.790,95%CI 1.167-2.746,P=0.008),total cyst diameter≥10 cm(HR 2.254,95%CI 1.318-3.854,P=0.003),and postoperative medications(HR 0.434,95%CI 0.292-0.644,P=0.000)were associated with OEM recurrence and were included in the no-mogram prediction model.The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.710(95%CI 0.665-0.754),and the area under the curve(AUC)of the ROC for OEM patients with recurrence at 2 years after surgery was 0.786 and 0.708 at 5 years.Conclusions:In this study,we developed a nomogram to predict the probability of recur-rence at 2 years and 5 years for OEM patients under 45 years who underwent conservative surgery,which has i-deal predictive performance and helps clinicians to screen high-risk patients,and thus give high-risk OEM patients additional attention and intervention.
