Analysis of risk factors and prediction model construction for prolonged hospital stay in children with mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia
10.3760/cma.j.cn341190-20241110-01474
- VernacularTitle:肺炎支原体肺炎患儿住院时间延长的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
- Author:
Tao SHOU
1
;
Bi ZHOU
;
De WU
Author Information
1. 安徽医科大学第一附属医院儿科神经康复中心，合肥 230022
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Pneumonia;
Mycoplasma pneumoniae;
Length of stay;
Risk factors;
C-reactive protein;
L-lactate dehydrogenase;
Child
- From:
Chinese Journal of Primary Medicine and Pharmacy
2025;32(7):987-993
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To analyze the factors associated with prolonged hospital stay in patients with mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) and construct an early identification model.Methods:A case-control study was conducted on 503 newly diagnosed pediatric patients with MPP who received treatment at Suzhou Municipal Hospital from April to December 2023. Clinical data were collected. Patients were divided into an observation group ( n = 240, hospital stay > 8 days) and a control group ( n = 263, hospital stay ≤ 8 days). Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent factors that affect hospital stay in the observation group. A Nomogram model was constructed. Results:The incidence of lobar pneumonia in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [62.5% (150/240) vs. 22.4% (59/263), χ2 = 82.94, P < 0.001]. The mean age of the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [5.0 (3.0, 7.0) years vs. 4.0 (2.0, 6.0) years, Z = 2.40, P = 0.016]. The hypersensitive C-reactive protein level in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [10.5 (4.8, 22.0) mg/L vs. 6.1 (1.8, 14.2) mg/L, Z = 5.16, P < 0.001]. The ferritin level in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [225.3 (180.9, 271.3) μg/L vs. 177.7 (138.0, 222.0) μg/L, Z = 6.31, P < 0.001]. The albumin level in the observation group was significantly lower than that in the control group [43.7 (41.0, 46.2) g/L vs. 44.4 (42.3, 46.5) g/L, Z = 2.45, P = 0.014]. The total protein level in the observation group was significantly lower than that in the control group [70.0 (66.8, 73.0) g/L vs. 71.5 (67.8, 74.6) g/L, Z = 2.45, P = 0.014]. The lactate dehydrogenase level in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [337.5 (301.5, 391.8) U/L vs. 291.0 (258.0, 332.3) U/L, Z = 3.28, P = 0.001]. The creatine kinase level in the observation group was significantly lower than that in the control group [77.5 (55.3, 115.8) U/L vs. 89.0 (65.0, 126.0) U/L, Z = 2.75, P = 0.006]. The fibrinogen level in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group [4.3 (3.4, 4.8) g/L vs. 3.8 (3.0, 4.6) g/L, Z = 4.17, P < 0.001]. After performing univariate binary logistic regression using the glm method to screen variables, multivariate binary logistic regression was conducted. The results showed that the presence of lobar pneumonia, higher levels of hypersensitive C-reactive protein, ferritin, and lactate dehydrogenase were independent risk factors for prolonged hospital stays in children with MPP [ OR (95% CI): 3.803 (2.029,7.129), 0.986 (0.974,0.998), 0.994 (0.990,0.998), 0.989 (0.985,0.993), P < 0.001, 0.027, 0.002, < 0.001]. Conclusions:Based on the fundamental clinical laboratory indicators, an early prediction model was constructed for predicting prolonged hospital stay in children with MPP. This model provides a scientific basis for the early assessment of MPP in children and is suitable for broader application.
