Establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for non-suicidal self-injury in adolescents with mood disorders
10.3760/cma.j.cn211501-20240523-01305
- VernacularTitle:青少年心境障碍患者非自杀性自伤风险预测模型的建立及验证
- Author:
Yingyu WU
1
;
Wenjuan WANG
;
Yuan XIAO
;
Yajing WANG
;
Yuping CHEN
Author Information
1. 青岛市精神卫生中心心理二科，青岛 266000
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Adolescents;
Mood disorders;
Non-suicidal self-injury;
Nomogram;
Prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Practical Nursing
2025;41(10):741-749
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To construct a risk prediction model for non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) in adolescents with mood disorders, providing a basis for identifying and intervening in high-risk patients.Methods:A convenience sampling method was used to retrospectively analyze 724 adolescent patients with mood disorders admitted to the open ward of Qingdao Mental Health Center from January 2019 to July 2023. Patients admitted from January 2019 to December 2022 (641 cases) were randomly divided into a modeling group and an internal validation group in a 7∶3 ratio, while patients admitted from January to July 2023 (83 cases) were used as an external validation group. A binary multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to construct a nomogram prediction model for NSSI risk in adolescents with mood disorders. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity.Results:There were 179 males and 545 females, aged 15 (14, 17) years old. Among the 724 patients, 449 were in the modeling group, 192 in the internal validation group, and 83 in the external validation group. The incidence of NSSI in the modeling group was 32.96% (148/449). Reduced food intake ( OR=10.980, 95% CI 4.462-27.017), passive contact ( OR=4.681, 95% CI 1.986-11.031), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 score >17 ( OR=12.235, 95% CI 4.657-32.141), Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale score>15 ( OR=27.888, 95% CI 8.700-124.630), Insomnia Severity Index score >15 ( OR=6.357, 95% CI 2.257-17.899), and higher levels of past self-injury ( OR=1.663, 95% CI 1.428-1.935) were independent risk factors for NSSI in adolescents with mood disorders (all P<0.05). The AUC of the nomogram model based on these six factors was 0.973, with a sensitivity of 0.94 and a specificity of 0.89. Conclusions:The risk prediction model for NSSI in adolescents with mood disorders has good discrimination, accuracy, and practicality, and can help identify high-risk NSSI populations among adolescents with mood disorders.
