Construction of prognostic nomogram prediction model of differentiated thyroid cancer surgery combined with iodine-131 therapy based on 18F-FDG PET/CT and tumor markers
10.3969/j.issn.1009-9905.2025.10.002
- VernacularTitle:基于18F-FDG PET/CT和肿瘤标志物构建分化型甲状腺癌手术联合碘-131治疗的预后列线图预测模型
- Author:
Dong-qiong CHEN
1
;
Jian-wei LIU
;
Dan JIANG
;
Zhi-quan LI
Author Information
1. 内江市第一人民医院 核医学科(四川 内江 641000)
- Publication Type:Journal Article
- Keywords:
Thyroid cancer,differentiated;
18F-FDG positron emission tomography/computed tomography;
Iodine-131;
Prognosis;
Nomogram prediction model
- From:
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery
2025;28(10):763-768
- CountryChina
- Language:Chinese
-
Abstract:
Objective:To investigate the relationship between 18F-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography(18F-FDG PET/CT)and tumor markers and the prognosis of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer(DTC)treated with surgery combined with iodine-131,and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 134 patients with DTC who underwent surgery combined with iodine-131 treatment in our hospital from January 2021 to January 2023 were retrospectively analyzed.According to the prognosis after 1 year of treatment,they were divided into a good prognosis group(n=106)and a poor prognosis group(n=28).The general data,18F-FDG PET/CT related parameters[maximum standardized uptake value(SUVmax),metabolic volume(MTV),total lesion gly-colysis(TLG)]and serum tumor markers[thyroglobulin(Tg),thyroglobulin antibody(TgAb)]levels were compared between the two groups.Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between the related parameters and the tumor marker levels.Logistic multivariate analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors of DTC prognosis.Re-ceiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was used to analyze the predictive efficacy of related parameters combined with tumor markers on poor prognosis.Anomogram prediction model for poor prognosis was constructed and the predic-tive efficacy of the model was evaluated.Results:The proportion of stage Ⅲ-Ⅳ,the proportion of total resection and the levels of thyroid stimulating hormone(TSH),SUVmax,MTV,TLG,Tg and TgAb in the poor prognosis group were higher than those in the good prognosis group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Pearson correlation co-efficient showed that SUVmax,MTV,TLG and Tg,TgAb levels were positively correlated with tumor markers(P<0.05).Lo-gistic analysis showed that after adjusting for confounding variables,SUVmax,MTV,TLG,Tg and TgAb were independent influencing factors for the poor prognosis of DTC(P<0.05).ROC analysis showed that the combination of SUVmax,MTV,TLG,Tg and TgAb was significantly better than each parameter alone in predicting poor prognosis(P<0.05).The nomo-gram prediction model was constructed.ROC evaluation showed that the model had good prediction performance.K-fold cross validation showed that the model had stable performance and good generalization ability.Conclusion:The 18F-FDG PET/CT related parameters SUVmax,MTV,TLG and tumor markers Tg and TgAb are all independent factors affecting the poor prognosis of DTC patients treated with surgery combined with iodine-131.The prognostic nomogram prediction model based on the above factors has good predictive efficacy and can be used to guide clinical decision-making.
